Rome, October 21, 2023 – “The Israeli ground attack there will be such in Gaza. What will be crucial, however, will be how this will affect the Palestinian civilian population in particular. If it makes any sense, it could allow Saudi Arabia to continue a dialogue that is the real key to finding a way out of a conflict that will seemingly last forever over the decades. Otherwise, public opinion will become so radical that people will think that there will never be an opportunity to live together in peace in these countries. And it would be a catastrophe,” said Professor Bruce Jones, director of the foreign policy program and the project on international order and strategy at the Brookings Institution in Washington.
Israeli soldiers are ready to take action with tanks
Professor Jones, what do you think of Israel’s “three-phase strategy”?
“It is clear what Israel wants. Already in the first hours after the atrocities committed by Hamas, it was clear that Israel viewed the attack as a fundamental threat and would respond harshly given the scale and nature of the attack suffered, as well as the brutality of the attack, which mainly involved unarmed civilians were. Israel’s goal is to completely dismantle Hamas’s military capabilities and drive it out of the Gaza Strip, which will no longer serve as a launching platform for its rockets. For this reason, ground action was necessary. And that’s how it will be.”
Do you expect a war that will last weeks or months?
“Right now I’m expecting a war that will last years.”
Really?
“If you compare the populations of the two countries, the Hamas attack had 10 times the impact in terms of casualties than 9/11 in America. Now, after 9/11, the United States has been waging wars for twenty years. I believe that Israel is ready to fight even for ten years. It won’t last that long, but the best scenario that could emerge would be a war that lasts a few months. The best. It is not an optimistic prospect, but we must not sow illusions.”
Do you think Israel is willing to pay the price for a land invasion?
“Israel knows the military difficulties associated with an attack in an urban area like Gaza against highly motivated opponents using asymmetric tactics, and yes, it is prepared to pay a very high price. Of course, you may be willing to pay the price but still unable to achieve the desired result. But I believe that invading Gaza and destroying the military component of Hamas is an achievable goal for the Israeli army. Technically she has the ability and certainly the determination.”
And then? The Palestinian populationas Gaza becomes increasingly hostile to the Israelis.
“Once Gaza is liberated from Hamas, Israeli occupation is completely untenable, and that seems clear to me in Tel Aviv. A solution must be found that returns sovereignty to the Palestinians.”
As?
“It is extremely important that Prince Mohamed bin Faisal’s will to continue the normalization between Saudi Arabia and Israel, which the Hamas attack tried to prevent, emerges today. Bin Faisal condemned Hamas’ actions in clear terms and even expressed strong concern.” “The door to the normalization project with Israel is not closed to Israeli attacks involving civilians. If this door remains open, we can think about the future. Maintaining dialogue with moderate countries is key to resolving the Palestinian issue.”
So does the future depend heavily on how the invasion of Gaza is carried out?
“In any case. Israel must try to achieve its goals in Gaza without causing more turmoil on the Arab streets than has been the case so far. There is no possibility of peace. And another thing: It is very important how the Israelis will treat the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank. Politically, she must be seen as an interlocutor, or rather as the Palestinian interlocutor.”
And will Iran allow Israel to achieve its goals or will Lebanon attack it?
“It is clear that Tehran will seek to exploit the situation, particularly hoping to block any expansion of the Abraham Accords. But I don’t think Iran wants open conflict with Israel, and that applies equally to Israel and the United States.” States don’t want it united. But misjudgments and starting wars that no one wants are very, very common in history. So the situation is very dangerous. We’re on a knife edge.”
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