Earlier this week, as all eyes were on the fallout from the assassination of the Palestinian movement Hamas's number two, Saleh al Aruri, in an attack in Beirut that had all the signs of Israeli action, two powerful explosions rocked the Iranian city of Kerman. On Thursday, the terrorist group dispelled the confusion that initially surrounded the events…
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Earlier this week, as all eyes were on the fallout from the assassination of the Palestinian movement Hamas's number two, Saleh al Aruri, in an attack in Beirut that had all the signs of Israeli action, two powerful explosions rocked the Iranian city of Kerman. In a bid to dispel initial confusion, the Islamic State (ISIS) terror group claimed responsibility on Thursday for the attack, which claimed at least 91 lives and became the deadliest in Iran's modern history.
The attack, carried out amid high regional tensions caused by Israel's devastating military offensive in the Gaza Strip, has put ISIS back on the map. This is the last fateful reminder of its presence at various latitudes of the world and its ability to continue to conduct effective operations despite being defeated in Syria and Iraq – where between 2014 and 2019 it controlled large swathes of territory, many of its top commanders and Leaders have weakened in recent years due to competition from rival groups.
The number of attacks reported by the Islamic State and its supporters fell 53% in 2023 compared to the previous year, from 1,811 to 838, according to a BBC count based on official statements from the group and its supporters. However, the organization remains capable of carrying out hundreds of attacks per year (an average of more than two per day in 2023), exploiting local political and security vulnerabilities and loopholes.
Challenge for Iran
The attack in the city of Kerman, at a commemoration of the anniversary of the death of General Qasem Soleimani by a US drone in 2020, was most likely carried out by the Islamic State Khorasan (ISIS-K) affiliate. . This subgroup of the organization was founded in early 2015 and operates primarily in Afghanistan and Pakistan, but also in some surrounding countries such as Iran. In recent years it has changed its tactics and adapted its actions to the circumstances.
“After the Taliban came to power in Afghanistan in August 2021, there was a significant increase in ISIS-K attacks. In response, the Taliban launched a large-scale operation against its members and sympathizers, which resulted in the deaths of dozens of people and the arrest of hundreds, and attacks decreased significantly,” says Abdul Sayed, an independent researcher focused on jihadism from Sweden. in the region.
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“However, in mid-2022, ISIS-K adopted a new strategy that focused on large-scale suicide attacks rather than frequent mini-bombings, targeting foreign diplomats, foreign nationals, influential Taliban commanders, religious figures and key facilities in Kabul,” Sayed explained.
Between January and May 2023, the researcher adds, “the Taliban eliminated more than a dozen key ISIS-K commanders, leading to a dramatic decline in their attacks in Afghanistan and a prolonged cessation” of their actions. According to a BBC tally, the group's attacks fell 86% in 2023 compared to the previous year and 93% compared to 2021.
Still, according to Sayed, the group's most active operational network is currently in the Bajaur tribal district in northwestern Pakistan and on the border with Afghanistan. The expert says that “details about the whereabouts of ISIS-K leaders and members remain difficult to ascertain,” but points out that Taliban intelligence operations indicate that there are cells in Kabul, in a northeastern province on the Border with Pakistan and in provinces of northern areas on the border with Tajikistan there is Uzbekistan. There are also signs of their presence in the western province of Herat, which borders Iran.
Some analysts have warned that because of the Taliban's greater counterterrorism pressure, ISIS-K could decide to not only carry out fewer attacks, albeit with greater impact, but also of a more regional nature. In this sense, Iran is one of the most threatened countries due to ISIS's radical anti-Shiite stance (a group that follows the Sunni branch of Islam), its frontal opposition to the Iranian authorities, and its outreach to recruit followers. between Sunni Iranian citizens who are against the Tehran government. Furthermore, Iran does not have the influence or militias in Afghanistan that would enable it to counter ISIS-K, as is the case in Iraq and Syria, through the various pro-Iranian armed groups and the Proximity to the government of Bashar al-Assad. .
The attack in Kerman is not the only major attack that ISIS has carried out recently, nor is it the first major attack against Iran. Last summer, the group killed more than 60 people and injured more than a hundred in another suicide attack during an election rally in Pakistan. In October 2022, the terrorist organization claimed responsibility for another attack in the Iranian city of Shiraz, in which more than ten people died and dozens were injured. In 2018, he claimed responsibility for an attack during a military parade in the city of Ahvaz in southwestern Iran, killing 25 people. And a year earlier, two attacks occurred in central Tehran against the Iranian parliament and the mausoleum of Ruhollah Khomeini, the founder of the Islamic Revolution, in which 18 people died. Iranian authorities have accused the Islamic State of further attacks in the country and claim to have foiled dozens.
However, there are still unexplained elements of the recent attack in Iran. “It is premature to determine the level of involvement of the ISIS-K network in Afghanistan [en el atentado de Kermán]” says Sayed, who highlights that “after it happened, pro-Taliban media attributed the incident to the ISIS network in Tajikistan” and that “Iranian officials have also confirmed that one of the two suicide bombers was of Tajik nationality.” “If he is actually involved, it is likely that ISIS-K will make the details public soon,” predicts the researcher.
Global network
In addition to Khorasan Province (which in jihadist terminology refers to the historical region encompassing modern-day Afghanistan, eastern Iran, and areas of Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan), the Islamic State maintains several branches in other parts of the planet where it operates is Stay active. It is in Iraq and Syria that it has had to mutate the most in recent years due to factors such as the strengthening of the Syrian regime and the Iraqi military apparatus, the loss of territory, influence, resources and recruits, and the rapid elimination of its leaders. Last year, alleged attacks in Iraq fell by 65% and in Syria by 60% compared to 2022. However, the group remains capable of carrying out dozens of attacks, including some particularly sophisticated ones such as those carried out in Syrian prisons, to free members of its ranks, and continues to exploit security and stability gaps in areas such as Central Asia Syria should strengthen itself.
The situation is significantly different in sub-Saharan Africa, where the Islamic State has five regional affiliates and has sought to expand its influence in recent years to counteract setbacks in the Middle East. There, the group has taken advantage of greater instability and reduced counterterrorism pressure resulting from several coups, particularly in the Sahel, which have increased the political and socio-economic grievances of the local population.
In 2023, attacks by the Islamic State's various branches in sub-Saharan Africa also declined compared to the previous year, but the region accounted for up to 60% of all attacks reported by the group worldwide. The most active subsidiaries are in West Africa, mainly in northeastern Nigeria and around Lake Chad, and in the Sahel, particularly in Mali. The provinces in Central Africa and Mozambique also pose a significant threat.
In Egypt, where the Islamic State's Sinai affiliate claimed responsibility for more than 100 attacks in 2022 and temporarily occupied some cities in 2020, the threat has been almost completely crushed.
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