Media around the world are wondering whether the war between Israel and Hamas will escalate into a conflagration across the Middle East.
The trigger for such an escalation could well be the murder of Hamas deputy commander Saleh al-Arouri a few days ago in an Israeli airstrike in Lebanon.
In retaliation, the pro-Iranian Lebanese armed group Hezbollah shelled an Israeli military post with a barrage of 62 rockets, saying the attack was only “part of the initial response” to the killing of Saleh al-Arouri. Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah warned Israel against escalation, saying there would be “no caps” and “no rules” for his group's fighters if Israel committed to it.
In the Hamas terrorist attack on October 7, 1,200 Israelis, mostly civilians, were killed, around 240 others were taken hostage, 130 of whom remain captive. The conflict has already claimed thousands of lives (22,700 Palestinians and around 1,300 Israelis) and tens of thousands of civilian injuries, most of them children. More than two million Palestinians in Gaza were forced to leave their homes. 80,000 Israelis living near the Lebanese border have been evacuated and relocated as Hezbollah and other Islamist groups attack the region daily.
Hezbollah, a formidable enemy
Hezbollah, financed and equipped by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, is more powerful and better equipped than the regular Lebanese armed forces.
Hezbollah boasts that it can field 100,000 fighters, which seems exaggerated. But could have around 100,000 drones, missiles and rockets, some with 450kg of explosives, and be able to hit targets anywhere in Israel.
Its militias fought against Israeli forces during the 1982 occupation of southern Lebanon. In 2006, Hezbollah faced Israel again in a five-week war that left more than 1,200 Lebanese civilians and 158 Israelis dead and ended in a UN-brokered deal.
The war is taking its toll on the Israeli economy
The war of annihilation that Netanyahu and his cabinet are waging against Hamas is proving to be more complex and difficult than expected. As the war drags on, Israel's economy is strained. Israel urgently needs a large proportion of the reservists mobilized for the invasion and occupation of Gaza to return to civilian work. More than 300,000 Israelis were drafted, many from the economically important high-tech sector, creating labor shortages. As a result, Israel's economy is expected to contract by 2% this quarter. Under these conditions, Netanyahu and the IDF General Staff would lack the manpower to open a second front in Lebanon. And if the conflict spread to other regions of the Middle East, it would be almost inevitable that the Americans would be forced to intervene on Israel's side. This would make their situation untenable in Iraq, where the government is already threatening them with expulsion for murdering a pro-Iranian militia leader in Baghdad, whom they accuse of plotting attacks against the approximately 2,500 American soldiers deployed in Iraq to fight against the US State stationed, to have led. Islamic.