by Sara Gandolfi
In Brazil, the runoff election on October 30: The challenge is between Jair Bolsonaro and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Polls see a neck-and-neck race between the two rivals, who insulted each other (“liar”, “bandit”) and exchanged accusations of “manhood pills” in their recent TV debate.
The presidents will be tired now. They rode motorcycles far and wide across Brazil, leading bands of cheering riders (Bolsonaro). They danced the samba on open cars by leading pro-democracy walks in big cities (lula). They talked (little) about programs and insulted each other (a lot). On Friday night they found themselves face to face in the Tv Globo ring for the second time, in an environment that forced them to vacillate between one attack and the next, like old boxers still taking punches to the want to throw opponents. Yesterday the last “Caminata” for the center-left candidate in San Paolo, the country’s first major constituency, and the last “Motociata” for the far-right candidate in the second constituency of Minas Gerais.
The first round, the last poll
It’s over. The toughest and most polarized election campaign in the history of Brazil ended with a sentence from Bolsonaro that gives reason to hope that there will be no aftermath: “Whoever gets the most votes wins.” The specter of a violent resurgence of the “Bolsonarists,” a long line of appeals, or worse, violent action in the event of their defeat, is (perhaps) removed.
Today, the Brazilians are called upon to vote for the future president between two challengers who know the job well. Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, 77, who previously lived at the Planalto Palace in Brasilia from 2003 to 2010, and Jair Messias Bolsonaro, the current 67-year-old tenant. In the first ballot, the leader of the Labor Party, a candidate from a broad centre-left front, won 48.43% ahead of Bolsonaro’s 43.2%. Only six million deputy votes out of 156 million voters. The latest poll released yesterday by MDA gives Lula the winner with 51.1% of the valid votes at 48.9%. But the uncertainty remains sovereign.
Debate on TV, notes written on the hand
The televised debate is unlikely to have shifted votes or won over the undecided. Bolsonaro with notes on his palm like a high school student before the Greek exam; Lula with her back to him like a hurt child: “I don’t want to be near you.” And then the usual insults – “liar”, “bandit” – even with the “blue pill”: the former trade unionist protested against the rival’s purchase of 35,000 Viagra tablets for the army. Trump of the Tropics defended himself by saying that “it is used to treat the prostate” and replied “do you happen to use it too?”. This went on for two hours, with mutual allegations of corruption, abortion and much more.
The unknowns of the economy
Whoever wins faces an uncertain economic future. Brazil, a major exporter, is grappling with an uncertain global context. The International Monetary Fund estimates that GDP growth will slow to 1.1% in 2023, compared to 1.7% in 2022. Both candidates have pledged to continue to support the poorest families, but economic policies would be very different. Lula wants to expand public spending on education, health and infrastructure, likely with an increase in taxes on the wealthiest classes. Bolsonaro wants to continue the liberal line and the privatization plan.
The first round, the last survey
For Senator Simone Tebet, advocate of the “Third Way” and third in the first round of the presidency, the election of Lula is a choice of democracy: “I dream of an inclusive, generous Brazil without hunger and misery, with good education and health, with sustainable Development. A Brazil with structural reforms that respects free enterprise, agribusiness and the environment,” he said in an interview with Corriere. “Today we have a president who threatens democracy, who does not respect the constitution, who does not promote harmony between the powers: legislative, executive and judiciary. Bolsonaro has already weakened our democracy.” Tebet now refers to him as a “coward” on television. Confirmation? “Yes, Bolsonaro is a coward in many ways, particularly in the way he attacks and threatens women, journalists, senators and lawmakers. This type of attitude cannot be silently observed in anyone, even more so than in the President of the Republic ».
October 29, 2022 (Change October 29, 2022 | 23:24)
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