Trump drinks from the glass of National Socialism: He recently warned, based on “Mein Kampf,” of the “poisoning of American blood” by the influx of Hispanic migrants. Trump responds to the coup accusation as a defendant: he directed Republicans to manipulate the results of the 2020 election and on January 6, 2021, he incited the invasion of the Capitol to prevent the certification of Biden's victory. So how can we explain the fact that polls show him to be the favorite in next November's presidential election?
The traditional answer, backed by polls, is that a large majority of voters think Biden is too old to serve again. Hence the pressure and still secret statements to replace the Democratic presidential nominee. However, there is something deeper that the protocol analysis misses: the Democratic Party faces greater popular rejection than the Republican Party.
The US economy is doing well much better than China's, by the way. The surge in inflation has subsided and there is virtually no unemployment. The wound is different: According to a Harvard Caps/Harris poll, 62% believe Democrats have moved too far to the left, while 57% think Republicans have moved too far to the right. In other words, in today's USA, a party tied to Trump's extremist leadership seems to be a less radical electoral option!
The surprising result represents a reversal of the perceptions prevalent in 2020. You are, of course, entitled to take comfort in the “theories” of a childish “sociology” spread on social media: Americans are inherently rightwing, biased or have fascist prejudices. But try to avoid ideological escapism: These same Americans voted for Barack Obama twice, and according to the aforementioned poll, 63% of them would like to see “another choice” instead of the Biden/Trump binomial.
The point reflected in several polls is the contamination of democratic discourse by identity politics. In the eyes of voters, the party that learned to appeal to the majority with the social policies of the New Deal and the antiracist division of the Civil Rights Act has become a small church, subordinate to the dogmas of the academic left. In the above survey, 64% believe that universities have given in to racebased identity politics, 69% believe that the idea that white people are oppressors is harmful to society, and 73% believe that identifying Jews as an oppressive class is incorrect .
The classic paradigm of political science holds that the path to electoral victory requires conquering the center of the ideological spectrum. In majoritarian contests, those candidates who are able to occupy the middle of the arena, where most of the electorate is concentrated, usually win. For this reason, the democratic system isolates the extremes and tends towards moderation. Breaking the rules i.e. the victory of extremist leaders signals a crisis in democracy. In the USA, the cause of the crisis must be sought in the Democrats' historical deviation from identity politics.
Biden defeated Trump in 2020, following the centrist conquest manual. However, his party did not follow him. Democratic public discourse, controlled by the left wing, reproduces the racial identity dogmas manufactured in universities. The socalled Critical Race Theory, the cult's holy book, replaces the concept of social class with that of race and portrays the majority of Americans as an “oppressive class.” Trump thrives in this political scenario and exploits the insecurities, fears and resentments this majority.
Brazil is not the USA. The PT cleverly avoids identity excesses and outsources them to the PSOL. But the continued strength of Bolsonarism has the same roots as the power of Trumpism.