The Russian invasion of Ukraine and the deteriorating relations between the West and China often lead us to see the world split in three: the western bloc, the SinoRussian bloc, and the global south trying to tighten its ties with to maintain others. two. In this context, the greatest geopolitical risk today would be a military conflagration between the western bloc and the SinoRussian bloc, for example in response to a Beijing attack on the island of Taiwan. While the threat of war between the two blocs is real, this somewhat simplistic view may lead us to overlook a number of other highly relevant threats.
Chief among these today is the severe deterioration in relations between China and India, the world’s two most populous nations. They are both atomic bomb owners and rising powers with big geopolitical ambitions and an unresolved border dispute since 1962, when China invaded and militarily defeated India. The two are now on a collision course. At least 20 Indian and four Chinese soldiers died in border fighting in the Himalayan region in 2020.
In December last year there were new wildfires, this time without fatalities. It is a matter of time before new, bloodier confrontations occur, with no clear mechanism to deal with the recurring crises. As a provocation, in April the Chinese government unilaterally changed the names of 11 places in India’s Arunachal Pradesh state, a region Beijing claims as part of “Southern Tibet.”
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Last week, China decided to expel the last Indian journalist in the country, while reducing the number of Chinese correspondents in India from fourteen to just one. At first glance, this appears to be just a detail, but it reflects a more worrying scenario: in an environment dominated by increasingly nationalist discourses, the two governments allowed the situation to deteriorate to the point of becoming one real information standstill in the relationship between them came the countries.
There is a serious deterioration in relations between China and India, the world’s two most populous nations. Photo: Adrian Bradshaw / EFE
After all, correspondents often represent the cotton between crystals in moments of tension: while nationalist TV presenters in India strike a strongly antiChinese tone, correspondents in the neighboring country often bring more differentiated information that can contribute to humanizing the other side. This also applies to Chinese correspondents who, despite restrictions on freedom of expression in their newspapers, often provided useful information for a deeper insight into India.
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For decades, visitors to India have observed how rivalry with Pakistan and fears of a new war following the 1999 conflict between the two countries have dominated public debate. Today the situation has changed and China is viewed by most Indians as the greatest threat to national security. In China, nationalist newspapers linked to the Communist Party, such as the Global Times, are increasingly portraying India negatively.
In response to China’s more confident and some would say more aggressive stance, the Indian government has taken a number of measures to limit Chinese influence in the country. It banned more than 200 Chinese apps, including TikTok and WeChat, and banned Chinese companies Huawei and ZTE from supplying components for India’s 5G network. As part of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, known as the “Quad”, New Delhi has decided to intensify its military ties with the US, Japan and Australia. The country is reducing its dependence on arms from Russia, China’s main partner.
Partly due to the restrictions, the US recently overtook China as India’s top trading partner. Behind the scenes, Indian diplomats are making it clear that they consider the G20 far more important than the BRICS group, where cooperation with China is becoming more difficult. Likewise, a decision was made to organize the next summit of the leaders of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, a Chinaled group, in a virtual format instead of the traditional presidential meeting, a decision that has been heavily criticized by the Chinese government.
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For Brazil, this situation poses a number of challenges: in addition to maintaining its economic and political ties with both the West and China and Russia, it will also have to look for ways to deal with the everincreasing tensions between Beijing and New Delhi A number of forums of great importance for Brazilian foreign policy, such as the G20 group and the BRICS group, a group that will be increasingly affected by the rivalry between the two Asian giants.