In the end, everything will be fine. Is not it?
With three rounds of CONCACAF matches remaining, squeezed into just seven days, there’s a chance something could go wrong in the rush as the US wraps up its World Cup qualification campaign this year.
Of course they can go right! And they probably will. But after the shock of 2017, when the US failed to qualify for the 2018 tournament, there was some negativity left in the American psyche. Bruce Arena’s team only needed one point in the final match against Trinidad and Tobago but managed to lose 2–1 as the other results were not in their favor.
The most unlikely scenario was the one that happened. Phrases such as “the odds are very strong in favor of the Americans” no longer hold much consolation value now that, after Trinidad, they can always be answered with “Yes, but…”
To cauterize this wound, one must lay claim to Qatar. A win at Estadio Azteca on Thursday could have done just that, depending on results elsewhere, but the Americans have only won once in Mexico City’s thin air, in a friendly in 2012. “Our record here is terrible,” said Team USA head coach Gregg Berhalter. acknowledged at a press conference on Wednesday.
The position of the Americans in the standings reflects the overall performance of the team: decent rather than dominant. It was not an imperious march towards Qatar, a decisive transition from the convulsions of the previous campaign. It was an unrealistic hope, given the need to rebuild under new leadership and make Canada a force.
All but qualifying, Canada leads by four points ahead of the US and Mexico, Panama is four points behind them, and fifth-placed Costa Rica is another point behind. The top trio qualify automatically, while the fourth-placed nation gets a single play-off match in Qatar in June against a team from Oceania, expected to be New Zealand.
There is no complacency from the last cycle. “Of course we use [missing out] as a motivation. We were very upset and now we want to qualify,” striker Christian Pulisic told reporters. “We definitely don’t want to go through this again.”
However, the timeline offers a dramatic climax. Given that Panama is likely to win at home against the unlucky Honduras on Thursday, it is likely that the US will lose to Mexico and fall to third place, just one point ahead of Panama. The two meet in Orlando on Sunday, with Panama beating the US last October.
If Mexico beats the US and Panama wins, and Costa Rica surprises Canada and is two points clear of Berhalter’s men, then the catastrophic fifth-place scenario will be more massive. As it happened, on March 30, the US ended its campaign with a visit to Costa Rica, another place where it has never won a World Cup qualifier.
The crunch of fixtures puts Berhalter in a dilemma of choice. Avoiding defeat in Mexico would have been an incentive ahead of a clash with Panama. In 2021, the United States beat the unremarkable national team of Mexico three times, so a draw, even a victory, is not quixotic.
However, the importance of Sunday’s game means Berhalter could decide to save the legs of key players while five have been booked and could face a one-match ban if they collect another. He said he had discussed with his coaching staff the fielding of the “B team”: “We have given our answer and you will see.”
Injuries give the young squad a superficial appearance in some positions. Gio Reina is back, but the US is missing Weston McKenney, Serginho Dest, Matt Turner and the only American ever to qualify, Brenden Aaronsohn. McKenny, who sets the tone for the ball in midfield, is a particularly serious loss. “What matters is how you react when you don’t have your boyfriends,” Berhalter said. “Everyone we have on this list, all 26 of them, can compete and that’s what it takes.”
Last autumn’s apparent striker decision now seems more like a question than an answer: Ricardo Pepi hasn’t scored a single goal for club and country in five months. Tim Weah is a fast winger, but the responsibility for the team’s attack lies with Pulisic, just like in the last campaign. “I feel very good and I feel in good rhythm at the moment,” said the Chelsea striker. “This is a really hungry team that will do everything they can to secure a spot at the World Cup.”
Meanwhile, while Berhalter was changing and reflecting, the carefree Canada, undefeated and clearly led by John Herdman, has become arguably the best – and definitely the most fun – team in CONCACAF.
However, a detailed analysis of the shift of power in the region to the north can wait a few more days. Berhalter gathered his staff ahead of the Azteca trip and told them: “This is probably the most important week of our lives as professional coaches.” It won’t be calm. But in the end, he will probably also be the best.