Alarms have been raised again in Kosovo. Kosovar Albanian police last Friday suppressed protests that broke out in the town of Zvecan, north of Kosovo Serbs, against the swearing-in of an elected mayor of Albanian origin. Serbia, which does not recognize Kosovo as an independent state, has kept its army on combat alert since that day, and demonstrations in the region have not stopped, leading to a dangerous escalation of tensions between the two communities. NATO, which maintained a peacekeeping force (KFOR) of 3,700 troops in the region, has decided to deploy another 700 troops to avoid new clashes.
Both the EU and NATO have called for the situation to calm down and asked the Kosovar heads of state and government, Albin Kurti, and the Serbian head of state, Aleksandar Vucic, to resume dialogue. Below are the main keys to a conflict that has the international community on edge as it fears a resurgence of the ethnic clashes that claimed thousands of lives in the 1990s.
NATO soldiers protect the town hall of Zvecan in northern Kosovo on May 31. GEORGI LICOVSKI (EFE)
1. What triggered the recent clashes?
The government of Kosovar Prime Minister Albin Kurti sponsored local elections in the north last year, which were boycotted by the Serb majority in that area. In November 2022, more than 600 Kosovar Serb officials – including mayors, city councillors, police officers and judges of Serbian origin – resigned in protest against the call. Kurti postponed the elections under pressure from the European Union. After all, they took place last April, with a turnout of just 3.5% of voters given the Serbian boycott. Despite this low percentage, Pristina confirmed elections, in which mayors of Albanian origin won in Serb-majority municipalities. Last Friday, Pristina sent three mayors to the municipalities of Leposavic, Zubin-Potok and Zvecan to be sworn in.
In Zvecan (population 7,300), residents tried to prevent the mayor’s access to the town hall and the Kosovar police did their best to quell the protests and make room for the town council. On May 26, Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic ordered his army to go into combat readiness and deploy units closer to the Kosovo border.
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2. What are the main problems of the conflict?
Kosovo unilaterally declared its independence in 2008. More than 100 countries recognized the new state (Spain is not one of them). However, Serbia never accepted the decision and continues to regard Kosovo as a separate province. Since then, in an area smaller than Murcia, there have been 1.8 million inhabitants, 90% of whom are of Albanian origin, about 6% are of Serbian origin and the rest belong to other minorities. Half of the population of Serbian origin, estimated at around 100,000 people, is concentrated in four municipalities in the north, where they make up the majority: Mitrovica, Zubin Potok, Liposavic and Zvecan.
Attempts to agree on autonomy for the majority Serbian area or to apply the administrative decisions of Pristina in the northern region have so far failed and repeatedly led to disputes.
In this context, there are two problems that have prevented progress in the agreements between Belgrade and Pristina in recent months. On the one hand there is the problem of the registrations, which are Serbs in the north and Kosovar Albanians in the rest. And second, and more importantly, the creation of a confederation of Kosovar Serb communities.
The Pristina government tried in 2021 to implement a law to remove all Serbian license plates from Kosovo. This feint sparked protests with roadblocks in the north. The European Union mediated, but Pristina tried again in March 2022. And the blockades tightened again. Eventually, the EU managed to temporarily appease the crisis. As for a federation of municipalities, the Kosovo Serbs claim that this was endorsed by the parties in agreements as early as 2013. But Kosovan Prime Minister Albin Kurti flatly refuses to grant such greater autonomy.
At the heart of all divisions is the issue of sovereignty. The Spanish Balkans expert Miguel Roán warns: “Until the two parties give way, there will be no lasting peace agreement in the region.”
Kosovo Serb protesters clash with NATO peacekeepers May 29 in Zvecan, northern Kosovo. GEORGI LICOVSKI (EFE)
3. What international support do Serbia and Kosovo receive?
Kosovo’s main international ally is the United States, followed by the European Union (although not all of its members recognize its independence, including Spain). And Serbia includes Russia, followed by China. However, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has prompted both Washington and Brussels to strengthen ties with Serbia, a country of just under seven million people but vital to the stability of the Balkans and Eastern Europe.
The EU has worked hard to maintain the prospect of Balkan integration. The prerequisite, however, is that Kosovo and Serbia sign an agreement to normalize relations. That pact has not been possible so far, despite the efforts of the European Union’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs, Josep Borrell, who has met with both leaders on multiple occasions.
Faced with images of police repression in Zvecan, the US and EU condemned Kurti’s decision to send Albanian mayors to northern Kosovo. They insisted that this move is only to increase tension. But Kurti ignored Washington and Brussels. For the time being, the Kosovan President is determined that the elected mayors in the northern cities will take office.
Borrell asked Kurti this Wednesday to alleviate a “dangerous and unsustainable” crisis. And French President Emmanuel Macron also blamed Pristina for the current tensions. Moscow, in turn, has expressed its solidarity with Serbia and its “concern” about the events in Kosovo.
4. What is the internal situation of the Serbian President and what is its impact on the Kosovo crisis?
In early May, there were two shootings in Serbia that claimed 18 lives within just two days. Thousands of people took to the streets to protest against violence and the proliferation of weapons among the population. The demonstrations were massive, criticized by and anti-government. The Serbian Aleksandra Tomanic, director of the NGO European Fund for The Balkans, explains the context of the protests from Belgrade: “The media, television and the press are controlled by the state. And they spread hatred towards neighbors, minorities, political opponents, etc. War criminals are regular guests at gatherings. And in recent years, even public spaces across the country have been flooded with ultra-nationalist messages glorifying war criminals.”
Prominent analysts in the region believe the escalating tensions in Kosovo are linked to anti-government protests in Serbia. Tomanic claims: “Over the past two days, nationalist demonstrations in support of Kosovo Serbs have taken place in Belgrade. With them, Vucic tries to counteract the effects of the protests against the government. Their goal is to silence criticism.”
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