In all likelihood, Donald Trump will be absent from the first televised debate of candidates for the Republican nomination on Wednesday night. He’s right. Anyone with a head start in the polls would do the same.
Trump is well ahead in the polls with around 55% of the vote for him. Its closest competitor is around 15% of voting intentions. Since there are 12 candidates and winning a majority of the votes in any state is enough to win all of that state’s votes, with such a margin Trump could get close to 100% of the Republican delegates!
If he agreed to a debate, Trump would risk making a mistake, giving his opponents new ammunition, or creating uncertainty among his supporters. It’s pointless to take that risk.
In addition, given the processes that overwhelm him, untimely and careless statements on his part could be used against him by the public prosecutor.
Trump and Biden
Trump’s fate is not yet clear in the American electorate. In most polls, Joe Biden’s and Trump’s voting intentions are tied. Biden usually has a slight 1% or 2% lead. However, this result remains within the margin of error of the polls. It therefore cannot be interpreted as a weak trend in favor of Biden.
With the presidential election just over a year away, it’s too early to attack Biden in debates. That would be a waste of ammunition.
But there’s another reason Trump isn’t holding debates on the Republican nomination: His health appears to be worse than before.
Trump is aging
Trump is 77 years old. Age begins to weigh on his shoulders. He looks hunched over and overwhelmed when he thinks the camera isn’t on him.
But Trump doesn’t want to convey the image of an old man. He has frequently attacked Biden for this reason, and he himself could suffer a backlash.
Trump has several flaws. But he is exceptionally good at marketing and extremely mindful of his image.
For this reason he attacked the Fox News channel and accused it of showing bad photos of him.
Still, Fox News is an organization dedicated to the Republican Party. To the point that the rumored news channel largely silences the news surrounding the Trump trials while the other major news channels run their front pages.
Some would argue that the other news outlets also have a bias in favor of Biden. Surely. But Fox News is so concerned with Trumpist disinformation that it’s almost surprising its owner, Rupert Murdoch, isn’t invited to join the 19 people accused of conspiracy in Georgia.
