The results of the Constitutional Council elections that will take place this Sunday in Chile will enlighten some unknowns, but probably the most important one is not in President Gabriel Boric’s ruling party and in the left, but in the opposition: will reach the extreme right of the party Republicans led by José Antonio Kast surpass the historic right that backed the two governments of Sebastián Piñera? It is the most important internal war in an election marred by citizen apathy, despite the likelihood of high turnout due to compulsory voting. Some analysts like Pepe Auth have even predicted that the ultra-conservative formation could become the leading political force on the Chilean stage after this election. Exactly 50 years after the coup d’etat of Augusto Pinochet, a figure with which this party of the extreme right did not cut it and claims to the contrary.
The traditional right brings together three parties in the sector: UDI, RN and Evopoli. These formations are currently being led by new political generations, different from those who spearheaded the transition to democracy and too freshly associated with dictatorship. After the failure of the previous constitutional process – last September 62% of voters rejected the proposal for a convention – the historic right fulfilled its earlier commitment to enable a new way of amending the Basic Charter. “The Chilean right is committed to the continuity of the constituent process,” said UDI President Javier Macaya in September.
The Republican Party, which is linked to the Spanish formation Vox, has not done so: it remains in the original position of not wanting to change the constitution drafted during the 1980 dictatorship, even though it has undergone a dozen democratic reforms. The far-right formation, whose leader won the first majority against Boric in the first round of the presidency in 2021, has been able to strengthen thanks to the bleeding of the traditional parties by the right. According to forecasts, the main loser would be the UDI, the most ideological party on the Chilean right.
“The UDI will be the party that will be punished the most because it is obvious that many of their supporters are voting for Republican candidates on this occasion. Quite a few also vote for the People’s Party [de carácter populista]’ historical UDI leader Pablo Longueira wrote in a letter to his militancy this week. For Longueira, “Republicans will grasp the impact of uncertainty [el impacto por los asesinatos de carabineros y el creciente problema de la inmigración]. In this election it will be the party with the most votes. It could even overtake Chile Vamos, as it did in the first round of the presidency [el bloque de la derecha tradicional]. If so, this time it will have a very strong influence within the UDI, RN and Evópoli,” assured one of the main faces of this political force that Kast once fought for before embarking on his own path in 2016.
Kast takes a selfie with nominees for the Constitutional Council, in a picture posted to his Arica social media May 2. joseantoniokast (twitter)
Historical leaders of the right have expressed concern about the threat posed by the Republican Party. Former President Piñera met with sector leaders this week to analyze the differing forecasts. There was even talk of the possibility that Kast’s party alone would outsell the entire bloc of the traditional right in percentage of votes and number of councillors. What seems highly likely, however, suggests that both the traditional and extreme right together could reach 30 representatives on the council – a quorum of three-fifths – exactly what is needed to endorse the constitutional body’s norms. What doesn’t seem obvious are the agreements between the two right-wingers, as the Republican Party has historically been in favor of keeping the Magna Carta. For La Moneda, a fruitful dialogue between both sectors would represent a complex scenario.
a suicidal approach
“It’s likely that the extreme right [Kast y el Partido Republicano] achieve a relatively good result, reaching almost 20% of the electorate, as the current political situation favors the iron agenda. Kast is a well-known figure who has campaigned for his list across the country, and government support is not going well,” analyzes Cristóbal Rovira, PhD in political science at Humboldt University in Berlin, head of the research Apoyo y Rejection der Extremen rights in Chile. “If so, we shouldn’t be surprised if some of the conventional right to change strategy is at stake. Instead of following the discourse of differentiation (Macaya was important in this), you bet on a rapprochement and even symbiosis with the extreme right (the strategy favored by Mayor Rodolfo Carter),” says academic Diego Portales, UDP from the university.
For Rovira, the reality of other countries shows that this bet is very risky and probably suicidal: “A rapprochement between the conventional right and the ultra-right favors the latter in particular, since it ultimately legitimizes itself as an actor and thus his ideas gain more space. Then, sooner rather than later, the extreme right would be subordinated to the screenwriter of the film and the conventional right to a supporting role position (think of the current situation of the Republican Party in the USA, where the moderate faction is practically non-existent and the radicals are in control)” , analyzes the scientist.
The researcher points to a key fact feared by the left, the ruling party and the Boric government itself: the repercussions of hardening the positions of the conventional right, which he believes would impede the functioning of the body responsible for a new constitution to write. “It would end up being very complex to make transversal agreements and thus create a text that reflects the diversity of the country. Seen in this way, one of the unexpected consequences of a possible symbiosis between the extreme right and the conventional right would be to delegitimize the constitutional process to such an extent that the final product could be rejected in the December vote of the year.” It is one of La Moneda’s nightmares: that the current constituent process comes to a text that is equal to or worse than the current one, but which will be legitimized by the citizens in next December’s exit vote, that it is finally a proposal that does not call the large majorities and partisans for the right (unlike the previous process, which was heavily tilted to the left).
This Sunday could start in Chile configuring the type of law that the South American country will have. Kast’s party, which has traveled throughout Chile in this election campaign, won 15 MPs and two senators in 2021, and a good result for the Republicans this Sunday could put them in an expectant situation ahead of the 2024 (governor) elections. leave behind and municipal) and 2025 (parliamentary and presidential). On the traditional right, they are on the alert. “In the absence of an outcome that favors collaboration and unity, the case described by Nicanor Parra would occur: that the (extreme) left and the (extreme) right united will never be defeated,” one of EL PAÍS recalled recently. the young leader of the UDI, Jaime Bellolio.
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