There are Peronist brochures, mate and cookies on the table; There is a box with the candidate’s face and sheets of paper with the question: “Why do you think people voted for Milei?” Do you know all the rights we will lose if he wins? Which party do you identify with? What do you think of Massa’s actions? The residents of La Matanza left their answers in blue pen. In the primaries in August, the majority of Argentines voted for the ultra-candidate Javier Milei; But here, in the greater Buenos Aires area, where most voters are concentrated, the victory went to the Peronist Sergio Massa. Despite the coup at the national level, Peronism has its refuge in the suburbs of Buenos Aires and hopes to keep it in Sunday’s general elections.
Facundo Sastre, engineering student, shows a stuffed saw. Tiago Ramirez Baquero
In this conglomerate of more than 11 million inhabitants and 24 municipalities that surround the city of Buenos Aires to the north, south and west, 24% of Argentine voters will vote, according to data from the National University of General Sarmiento (UNGS). . Such is its electoral importance that all candidates are concentrating the final phase of their campaigns on this area. The polls show Milei in the lead, although this dominance would not allow him to win in the first round, as Jorge Galindo analyzes for EL PAÍS. Should there be a second round, Massa is his most likely rival, although his lead over Patricia Bullrich of the traditional right of Together for Change is within the margin of error.
The fight over voting in the suburbs is taking place door-to-door. “We have trust,” says Daniel González, a 31-year-old man who this Thursday distributed leaflets with the face of Sergio Massa in a pedestrian street in Laferrere, in La Matanza. González advances with a dozen members of a Peronist neighborhood group. Although Peronism retained this historic bastion in the primaries, they talk to their neighbors, they try to convince because they have seen the advance of the extreme right. It is early and the traders are starting to open their shops and set up their stalls. They sell socks, visors, chips, jewelry. The train passes a few meters away
People from a neighborhood organization carry out political activities in the city of Gregorio de Laferrere. Tiago Ramirez Baquero
One of the first brochures of the morning is given to Miguel Ángel Escobar, 68, who sells earrings at a stall on the street. He came to the suburbs at the age of 18 and was “expelled” from the capital. Unlike his wife, he did not complete high school, but his three children studied at a public university. He does not define himself as a Peronist voter, although he will vote for the coalition led by Massa, the current economy minister in a country where year-on-year inflation is close to 140%. “I’m for a people’s government that takes care of the people,” he says as he serves customers who ask but don’t buy.
—What is their price?
— That’s 1,000 pesos. You are meant to flaunt these earrings [pendientes].
“I told him 1,000 pesos [menos de un dólar]. Last week I sold this earring for 700. Yesterday I bought it from my supplier and it cost me 700. “What should I do,” he explains. “The situation, we cannot lie, is very difficult.” But he continues to support the Peronist candidate. “The hope is that people have work and that when summer comes they can go to the coast for 10 days or visit a family member 1,000 kilometers away. These are things that could have been done. I managed to do this during the reigns of Néstor and Cristina [Kirchner], during the Peronist government. Not after that. When Macrismo came, I had bought two [aparatos de] Air conditioning and I couldn’t use it because I couldn’t pay the rent.”
This area emerged from a process that began after the 1929 crisis, according to historian Carlos Pagni in The Knot. Why the suburbs of Buenos Aires shape Argentine politics. Its urbanization was linked to the industrialization model promoted by Peronism in the 1940s, and in 2001 the earthquake of economic, political and social crisis that shook Argentina had its epicenter there. The figures show that 46% of residents live in poverty and unemployment is above 8%. However, it is a heterogeneous and uneven mosaic. In a municipality like Presidente Perón, the percentage of households with unmet basic needs (UBN) reached 19% in 2010, according to the most recent data available; At the other extreme is Vicente López with a 2.4.
Miguel Ángel Escobar works in his position on October 12th. Tiago Ramirez Baquero
“It’s like a condensed country,” compares Bárbara Couto, dean of the UNGS Conurbano Institute. The sociologist explains that the roots of Peronism in this geography have to do with the movement’s agenda being “closely linked to urban employment” and political articulation “in dialogue with companies”. “Many workers displaced from the regional economy look for employment opportunities in large cities, and factories and opportunities for jobs in services, trade, etc. are concentrated in the suburbs. This in turn brings together more or less organized groups,” claims he.
The support of the suburbs
In the August primaries, the Peronist alliance Unión por la Patria was the force with the third most votes in the country. These were the worst results in recent years. The presidential candidates running in the internal elections, current Economy Minister Sergio Massa and social leader Juan Grabois, together received 27.2% of the vote. Ahead of Peronism were the conservative alliance Together for Change, which had a one-point lead between its two candidates Patricia Bullrich and Horacio Rodríguez Larreta, and the ultra-candidate of La Libertad Avanza, Javier Milei, who received the most votes.
However, if you focus on the suburbs, the situation changes. The force with the most votes in this area was Unión por la Patria, which won in 18 municipalities, followed by the conservative coalition Together for Change, which won in six municipalities; La Libertad Avanza finished second or third and was not the favorite in any of them. The state governor, Kirchnerist Axel Kicillof, also had a good election and the polls predict that he will win re-election.
“Peronism in the primaries continued in the northeast of the country and in the province of Buenos Aires. A lot of this support came from voting in the suburbs,” explains political scientist Facundo Cruz, author of the Cenital newsletter People Vote. “This support is twofold: national and provincial. Undoubtedly, at the national level, the vote in the suburbs was one of the mainstays for the Unión por la Patria; The same thing happened in the provinces. At a second, more local level, many of the mayors identified with Peronism were ratified,” explains Cruz.
The political scientist measures the weight of this territory in the Argentine elections: “First, there is a large proportion of voters: the largest concentration in nominal values and per square kilometer is in the suburban area; It is an electoral stream that every political space is trying to conquer. Second, it represents a major influx of voices that have historically been Peronist.” “When Peronism is doing poorly or is divided,” Cruz says, “many of the explanations are sought first in the suburbs.”
A street in Gregorio de Laferrere.Tiago Ramírez Baquero
This disputed area is crucial for candidates in a third-party scenario, such as that planned for the October 22 general election. After the primaries, the three presidential candidates intensified their tours of communities in this region. From there, Sergio Massa, the ministerial candidate, announced measures aimed at mitigating the devaluation of the peso and opened works; Patricia Bullrich toured in La Patoneta, her campaign RV, and Javier Milei visited the area, chainsaw in hand.
Milei, the radical change
Accompanied by Carolina Píparo, his candidate for governor of Buenos Aires, Milei sets out to find votes among those disillusioned with both Kirchnerism and Macrism. A few weeks ago, around 500 people took part in the ultra candidate’s caravan in the San Martín party in Buenos Aires. There were few of them, but they were loud. The music of the drums was mixed with shouts of “Long live freedom, damn it!” and the sound of the chainsaw that the candidate uses at his rallies. It is a symbol of the cuts in political privileges and public spending that he will face if he reaches the Casa Rosada.
“I’m going to vote for him because I’m tired of politicians stealing for years,” criticizes Ezequiel, a 24-year-old food delivery person. He approaches the San Martín caravan with his mother Teresa, whom he tries to convince to also vote for him. “I’m angry with Alberto [Fernández] because he didn’t do anything he promised. We are worse, not better, than before,” says the 42-year-old saleswoman, who believes that the president and his deputy Cristina Fernández de Kirchner were more concerned with fighting for power than solving Argentines’ problems. He did not vote in the primary and has not yet decided whether he will do so in the Oct. 22 general election.
A group of people line up in front of a bench in the town of Laferrere. Tiago Ramirez Baquero
Milei believes that the scandals that have plagued the ruling Peronism in recent weeks could favor it by further increasing outrage against the political caste. The most famous was Martín Insaurralde, one of the strongmen of the Buenos Aires government, who had to give up his office and his candidacy for the city councilor of Lomas de Zamora. Insaurralde’s photos and videos on board a luxury yacht in Marbella with model Sofía Clerici quickly went viral and sparked intense criticism, even within its own ranks.
Peronism won the primaries in Lomas de Zamora, where more than 400,000 people live. However, many residents do not forgive the former mayor for his ostentatious vacations, which contrast with the growing misery in the outlying districts. “I saw the pictures and got really angry, I felt like they were joking. “Insaurralde should be here to solve people’s problems and insecurity, not in Spain,” said Gonzalo, a 41-year-old computer programmer from Lomé. “I was always a Peronist, but I was fed up with corrupt politicians,” he says.
The opposition wants to exploit the discontent in the neighborhood: both Milei and Bullrich called election events in Lomas de Zamora in the last week of the election campaign. In the Milei caravan that took place this Monday, more than a thousand people crowd together to get as close as possible to the Peluca. They record him on their cell phones, bring him books, posters and stuffed animals for him to sign, and they cheer him on, shouting, “The caste is afraid,” “Feeling down, feeling down, Milei President.” Yellow flags with the logo of a lion, the royal animal with which the ultra candidate identifies, are waving around him.
Liliana Tastaca, member of the Peronist organization Barrios. Tiago Ramirez Baquero
“Many are angry,” admits Liliana Tastaca, 45, who, like Daniel González, is handing out blue leaflets with Sergio Massa’s face. “Many people strive to become better. But we understand that this is the right path,” he defends. In polls conducted in recent days, responses show that voters are asking the next president to address the repeated priorities of “safety for all,” “jobs,” “education,” “order,” “economy.” In a few days they will go to the polls.
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