The political situation has taken an important turn in the last two weeks. According to virtually all polls, Alberto Núñez Feijóo remains the clear favorite to win and govern after the July 23 elections, but the primary campaign has quickly positioned itself on an axis that the PP doesn’t care about at all, according to several of them. Its leaders: those of its pacts with Vox, which have led to coalitions in 140 municipalities and in the Valencian Community. And with that they open up the scenario of a possible pact in La Moncloa with Santiago Abascal as vice president.
Feijóo wants to get out of this framework quickly and has given clear instructions to freeze the negotiations in the municipalities that have yet to be resolved – Extremadura, Aragón, the Balearic Islands, Murcia – and to return to the axis that has dominated the municipal election campaign and that was so successful for the popular ones: that of anti-sanchism. The PP’s latest video is very clear, trying to encourage people to vote in mid-July with a strong idea: to put Sánchez on permanent leave. “Let him pack his bags.” “And now please let him go.” “And keep thinking about politics, but from home.” These are arguments that several voices make about Sánchez.
In the coming week, the PP will try to return to anti-sanchism or to the pacts with Bildu and ERC, which dominated the previous election campaign and are crucial for this 9 percent transfer of according to the 40dB poll published by EL PAÍS and Cadena SER Voices from the PSOE to the PP, which upset the balance and make them favorites, together with the voice of the Ciudadanos, which the people receive almost entirely. However, even without definitive data – they will arrive with new polls in the next few days – within the PSOE they are already clearly seeing the impact of these PP-Vox pacts and the enormous role that Vox’s most extreme positions are playing in voter progressives. The PP not only agreed to a coalition in Valencia and gave the vice presidency to Vicente Barrera, a bullfighter who consulted the networks to find out if he named his horse Viriato, Escipión, Caudillo or Duce. Furthermore, with his votes, he made Gabriel Le Senne president of the Balearic Parliament (who wrote, among other xenophobic and denial comments, that “women are more belligerent because they lack a penis”). It has also made Marta Fernández, an outspoken anti-vaccination and climate change denier, president of the Cortes de Aragón, who said of Irene Montero “that she can only kneel to thrive”.
The Socialists believe that this outflow of 9%, the largest in the entire legislature, is slowing down significantly and that the classic socialist electorate is beginning to mobilize, which was not the case so much in local elections. Some pollsters interviewed, even without definitive data, admit that a reactivation of the socialist vote has been detected. However, in the PP, several leaders point out that their data does not indicate that this flow from the PSOE to them is slowing down. While they admit that the PSOE is growing slightly, their analysis suggests that this is because it is attracting votes from Sumar. Meanwhile, Yolanda Díaz’s group is convinced that they will rise in the polls from now on, once the internal battle with Podemos over the lists that has been wearing them out is over. The PP also attack Díaz because it is crucial for the right block that Sumar does not take third place and so can start taking seats away from Vox. Díaz appeals to a broad constituency, not just to the traditional left. “I want to be the first Green President of Spain,” she said this Saturday, looking for the ecological vote that the PSOE is also pursuing.
In La Moncloa they are convinced that this was not the campaign they expected in the PP. The importance of the pacts with Vox surprised the populace, who seemed confident that the matter would go away once the municipal agreements were finalized. The big elephant in the room that the PP doesn’t want to talk about is still the coalition with Vox for La Moncloa. Feijóo and his people point out that there will be no coalition but external support, as they claim in Extremadura. The truth is that the distribution of percentages proposed in the polls is much more similar to that of the Valencian Community, where there was a coalition. But the PP wants to spread the idea that the coalition is not automatic and that is why the struggle in Extremadura is so important. And Abascal is sending the opposite message: he’s willing to put up with it, and if they need him, they have to make him VP. “If they don’t want us in government, good luck with the PNV and the others,” boasts a Vox boss.
That’s the framework of the far-right formation’s electoral campaign: it’s appealing to the most conservative voters to let them know that Vox will enter government to swing the PP to the right on the most ideologically charged issues. And they are convinced that the agreements in the town halls and in the Valencian Community will benefit them because it proves the usefulness of voting for Vox, exactly the opposite of the argument with which the PP tries to regain part of this space. For this reason, Vox will persevere in Extremadura because it cannot accept the thought that it is a useless vote.
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The Socialists are stunned by the PP-Vox war in Extremadura. Some in La Moncloa believe it is “a small theatre,” as Félix Bolaños said this Friday, and they will agree when the generals come by. But among the Socialists of Extremadura, they believe that María Guardiola has opted for a re-election, and they are not only outraged – it means that Extremadura will remain in office with a government for more than seven months, jeopardizing important investments – but they are believe that too. This could give the left a chance: these elections would no longer take place with an anti-sanchista wave and could harm whoever forced them, that is the PP, as was the case with the PSOE in 2019.
The Socialists believe Guardiola screwed it up by giving them control of the regional parliamentary table, “humiliating” Vox and risking too much, which could benefit the Socialists with Guillermo Fernández Vara as the candidate or someone else in the next generation . In Guardiola’s circle, on the other hand, it is believed that new elections, with or without Vara, would allow her to win more socialist votes and even consider an absolute majority and, above all, corner Vox even more. The only time the right ruled in Extremadura was with Monago, who was nicknamed “the red baron” because his chief adviser, Iván Redondo, drew a picture centered on him that was far from the prototype of the PP, which aimed for socialist votes.
The PSOE is convinced that this start of the pre-campaign indicates that there is still a party. It is clear to everyone that the fear of Vox is no longer enough that in April 2019 it actually worked and that is why many records are being sought and, above all, they continue to claim management and rely on good economic data. But Sánchez’s team believes that it’s impossible for all these deals with Vox not to cost PP. And that’s why Sánchez emphasized this Saturday in Tenerife that PP and Vox are “a bridge to the past” that has “great power to destroy” the rights achieved. “Spaces are being created for the LGTBI collective, LGTBI flags are being removed from the facades of city halls, there is agreement that there are no concentrations of opposition to sexist violence, it is said that there is no sexist violence, equality councils are being removed.” The presidency goes to deniers who say with great honor that neither they nor their children have been vaccinated,” he cried, directing a final direct attack on Feijóo: “Neither hard divorces nor soft divorces.” Sexist violence is always unjustifiable.” The PSOE is therefore trying to maximize something that it believes complicates the centrist image that Feijóo wants to project. But the popular seem convinced they still have the campaign’s winning card: anti-sanchism.
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