The second daily survey of 40 dB. for EL PAÍS and Cadena SER shows a slight increase in the PP after the last days crash in which it showed signs of attrition due to negotiations and pacts with the extreme right after the regional and municipal elections of 28-M.
The mainstream parties get 31.5% of the vote estimates, two percentage points more than the PSOE, adding another seat to Thursday’s forecast, to 128. Its eventual partner, who will reach La Moncloa, Vox, rises by a tenth and remains at 42 seats, giving the bloc a total of 170 seats and missing six for an absolute majority.
The PSOE, which began to recover from the effects of the 28-M electoral defeat in the run-up to the election campaign, remains the same as on Thursday with 113 seats and an estimated 29.3% of the vote, a percentage point above its results. of the 2019 elections, although it received up to 120 MPs at the time.
His partner Sumar is down three-tenths from the day before and would lose a seat to stay at 36. The block on the left would have a total of 149 seats, 21 fewer than the block on the right and 27 seats fewer than the absolute majority.
In a contested third place, Vox maintains its lead (by nearly two points in the latest pursuit or ongoing poll) over Sumar, the coalition that includes 17 left-wing formations. The bronze medal on the podium in the July 23 election will determine who ultimately occupies La Moncloa.
What affects most is what happens closer. Subscribe so you don’t miss anything.
subscribe to
In terms of voting transfer, in 2019 the PP gave almost 13% of its voters to Vox. And the PSOE halted the positive trend of the past few weeks as it began winning back voters from the last few generals who would now choose the PP. If on Thursday, the first day of 40dB tracking. For EL PAÍS, the voter flight from the PSOE to the PP accounted for 5.7%, rising to 7.8% on Friday.
Monday’s election debate, the only face-to-face debate in the campaign and the only format in which PP leader Alberto Núñez Feijóo will participate, may particularly affect that segment of the electorate that vacillates between the two major parties.
As for the leaders’ ratings, a few hours after the face-to-face interview between Pedro Sánchez and Alberto Núñez Feijóo, 31% named the PSOE Secretary General as the “best President for Spain”, 8.6 points ahead of the PP leader who gave his rating improved by a little less than one point compared to the previous score.
Data sheet:
Area of application: Spain. Universe: Total population residing in Spain (excluding Ceuta and Melilla), over 18 years of age and eligible to vote. Sample size: 1,500 interviews. Quotas by gender, age, autonomous community, habitat size, and social class. Process: online interview (CAWI). Sampling error: ±2.5% (for 95% confidence). Completion Date: July 4th and 7th, 2023.
downloadable
Below you will find, among other things, download links with the questionnaires used, the survey documentation and the matrices with all the answers in various formats (spreadsheet, DTA and SAV).
Receive every afternoon the “Diario de elecciones” bulletin with the analysis of Ricardo de Querol, deputy editor, and Luis Barbero, editor-in-chief.