Last Monday’s duel between the leaders of the two major parties improved the position of the PP and caused a slight setback for the Socialists. According to the latest edition of the 40dB daily survey. For EL PAÍS and Cadena SER, conducted after the televised debate between Pedro Sánchez and Alberto Núñez Feijóo, the popular parties would improve by two seats compared to the previous day to 127, while the Socialists would lose two more deputies. Rigorously evaluating the performance of both front-runners, there is a technical tie when it comes to picking a winner among respondents who have followed or said they have heard of the debate. Feijóo herself has been more compelling to those who have not yet made up their minds about their choice. All internal survey data can be viewed on the EL PAÍS and SER websites.
After the debate, the PP is up four tenths compared to the previous day and the PSOE loses two. The people’s gain is at the expense of Vox, while on the left the opposite happens, with Sumar making a small gain of three tenths more given the slight socialist backlash. The gap between the two main parties increases as the week begins until it approaches two points: 31.2% for the main parties and 29.5% for the socialists. In any case, the overall picture hardly varies. The comfortable victory of the 169-seat right-wing bloc is not enough to guarantee access to the government.
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Contrary to the almost unanimous opinion of political analysts, who have called Feijóo the winner of the competition, the results of the 40 dB poll. indicate a technical tie, although the Socialist candidate has a very small advantage (31.4% vs. 31.1%). This data requires certain nuances, explains Belén Barreiro, director of 40dB. On the one hand, unlike those of other companies, the survey eliminated those who affirmed that they were neither following nor heard of the debate. Among those who followed the program closely, a clear majority say they have already chosen a party for 23-J and therefore had a penchant for judging the candidates’ performance. According to the survey results, the audience was slightly left-leaning. In the group of respondents who indicated that they had not yet decided on their choice, Feijóo prevailed with a little more ease – around three points. Those who answer that they saw the program directly are 53.4% of the respondents.
The 500 face-to-face interviews were conducted at the end of the duel, between Monday morning and 10:30 a.m. Tuesday. “Respondents have therefore not yet gone through the process of contaminating the published opinion or their environment,” warns Barreiro, pointing out that her experience as a population researcher leads her to believe that the opinions of the first day can vary from day to day. The following. Therefore becomes 40dB. with the aim of refining the data, in the next episode on Wednesday, the seventh since the beginning of the campaign, ask again for the balance of the debate.
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Impressions gathered in the immediate hours of the face-to-face interview show that the PP candidate aroused far more enthusiasm among his constituents than Sánchez did among his own. 81.6% of those who have already voted for the PP see Feijóo as the winner, while this figure drops to 67.5% in the case of Sánchez and the Socialists. Each of them also wins in the other part of their ideological realm: Feijóo is elected by 47.9% of Vox voters and Sánchez by 48.4% of Sumar voters. A third of Yolanda Díaz’s constituency thinks she hasn’t won, as do nearly 20% of those voting for Vox. The sympathizers of the extreme right were those who followed the debate the least and more than 28% therefore avoided expressing an opinion on its outcome.
The demoscopic study asked how citizens rated three characteristics of the two antagonists: competent, persuasive or charismatic. With the latter, Sánchez stands out in particular and with the other two, the impressions are more balanced. What varies little is the general preference for the two main candidates. Both down half a point from the previous day, standing at 30.5% choosing the Socialist as their favorite president and 22.2% for Feijóo. Díaz is at 13.6% and Santiago Abascal at 12.8%.
After the debate, the mobilization of voters, especially on the left, has increased. The most striking case is that of the socialists. Since the campaign began, the number of his voters declaring that he will vote with absolute certainty has risen by nine points. On the last day, it has risen again by two points and is already at 70.4%, getting closer to the PP, which is at 71.5%. Those who voted for United We Can in 2019 are now the most mobilized: 74.6% say they won’t miss the 23-year event, ahead of 74.2% of Vox supporters.
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Below you will find, among other things, download links with the questionnaires used, the survey documentation and the matrices with all the answers in various formats (spreadsheet, DTA and SAV).
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