Algeria has become the country from which Italy imports the most gas, overtaking Russia. In 2022, the Draghi government struck several deals with its Algerian counterpart to increase gas supplies and continue the diversification process that has allowed it to reduce dependence on Russian gas. Eni and Snam, state-owned companies, have also invested in the African country by increasing their presence. Gas from Algeria has increased, but not at the promised level, and in the first few weeks of 2023, volumes have even decreased. Giorgia Meloni’s next institutional trip seems to be precisely to Algeria, with which the prime minister could reach further bilateral deals: Can Algeria’s failed promises prevent the “Mattei plan” announced by Meloni during his inaugural speech in the plenary hall?
Algerian promises to the Draghi government
In 2022, the Draghi government signed several bilateral agreements with Algeria. Mario Draghi personally traveled to the African country in April and May to discuss and sign them together with other members of the government. The primary nature of the agreements concerned gas at a time when Italy was looking for alternative supplies to those from Russia.
The agreements also affected Eni and Sonatrach, the Algerian state company that manages the country’s fossil resources, including gas.
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In summary, it was agreed to increase gas supplies from Algeria to Italy via the Transmed pipeline, which brings Algerian gas to the entry point of the national grid in Mazara del Vallo in Sicily: 4 billion cubic meters immediately in 2022. and increasing volumes from 2023 to 2024 by up to 9 billion cubic meters more per year. There were increases, but not as promised and far from the goals set.
Eni and Snam have increased their presence in Algeria. The latest step in chronological order is the joint management of the two companies of the gas pipelines connecting Algeria and Italy: Snam has acquired 49.9 percent of Eni’s stakes in the companies that manage both onshore and Algerian gas pipelines and run Tunisian ones the Tunisian coast, both offshore pipelines connecting the Tunisian coast to Italy.
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In 2022, Algeria became Italy’s first gas supplier, taking over from Russia. In fact, according to Snam data prepared by Today, in 2021 Russian gas accounted for 40 percent of total imports, in 2022 that percentage dropped to 16 percent.
Meanwhile, Algeria’s weight on Italian gas imports has risen from 29.5 percent in 2021 to 34.3 percent in 2022. The reversal between Algerian and Russian gas is evident: the former grew 11 percent in a year, the latter fell 61 percent to an all-time low since 1990.
However, the gas from Algeria has not reached the promised values even in view of the increases.
Algeria’s Broken Promises
The increase in Algerian gas in 2022 was evident, but not in the promised amounts. According to the agreements between Eni and Sonatrach, gas supplies from Algeria to Italy should have increased by 4 billion cubic meters in 2022 compared to 2021. In reality, according to Snam data processed by Today, the increase was just 2.4 billion cubic meters, more than half of what was announced.
Also, less gas arrived from Algeria in the first days of 2023 than in the same period last year: 867 million cubic meters compared to 1.1 billion in 2022, around 28 percent less, just in the year when Algerian gas rise to 9 should be billions of cubic meters more, the maximum that the Transmed pipeline will allow.
Meloni’s Piano Mattei, in the footsteps of Draghi
It is no coincidence that Giorgia Meloni’s next institutional journey seems to be in Algeria. The current government wants to continue the strategy of the previous government, Draghi, and inherit it. It is the so-called Mattei plan that Meloni spoke of in his inaugural speech.
“We need a Mattei plan for Africa, with a non-predatory but cooperative attitude,” Meloni said. Algeria could be the linchpin of the plan alongside Libya to consolidate Italian influence in the Mediterranean and secure supplies of gas and other resources.
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In general, Italian gas imports decreased slightly in 2022 compared to 2021, although some alternative supplier countries to Russia, such as Algeria, increased their contribution. This shows how difficult it is to plan for the future and that without Russian gas, the security of Italy’s supply remains on a fragile balance. Giorgia Meloni must manage the transition initiated by Mario Draghi, starting with Algeria: in 2023, every extra cubic meter of gas could make a difference.