Before the vote, polls predicted a significantly larger advantage for Lula and made victory in the first ballot seem possible. During the count, however, Bolsonaro came to be ahead of Lula at times.
“We will have to convince Brazilian society of our proposals,” Lula told disappointed supporters in São Paulo after the results were announced. The fight now goes on “until the final victory, that’s our motto,” said the 76-year-old former president, who ruled Brazil from 2003 to 2010.
Bolsonaro was confident of victory, despite the defeat in the first round of the election. “We won the lie,” declared the right-wing politician after the election results were announced, referring to forecasts by pollster Datafolha.
Leonardo Paz, from consultancy International Crisis Group, expects a “very tiring electoral campaign” for the coming weeks. The two candidates “will… attack each other” and Bolsonaro will base himself even more on the narrative that “the system is against him”.
According to experts, Bolsonaro comes out stronger from the first round of the elections – also due to the electoral victory of numerous right-wing candidates in Congress and the Senate. “Bolsonarismo” won this first round, said Bruna Santos, from the Wilson Center’s Instituto Brasil, in Washington. “We will live a second round in a radically polarized environment,” said the political scientist.
For the head of state, the four weeks leading up to the second round could be an opportunity to further mobilize his supporters. “It will give him renewed momentum because he has exceeded expectations,” said Michael Shifter of the Inter-American Dialogue.
But the result could also unleash new strength for Lula. Specialist Paz thought it possible that some people did not vote because they expected Bolsonaro to lose more clearly. These people could now go to the polls in the second round to support Lula.
Bolsonaro had already announced several times that he would contest the election result if he lost. Many people fear a Brazilian version of the unrest that rocked the US after Bolsonaro’s political model Donald Trump refused to acknowledge his defeat.
Left-wing politician Lula ruled Brazil from 2003 to 2010. Lula spent a total of 18 months in prison in 2018 and 2019 for his involvement in the corruption scandal involving state oil company Petrobras. His arrest was controversial at the time. Last year, the sentences imposed on him by the Federal Supreme Court were overturned on technical grounds.
Bolsonaro came to power as an outsider in the 2018 presidential election. His followers like his radical style, his attacks on the so-called establishment and his online media appearances. Bolsonaro’s critics say he has little to show for it besides hateful slogans, mismanagement of the corona pandemic and a devastating environmental record.
Under Bolsonaro’s leadership, not only was the deforestation of the Amazon rainforest promoted, but hunger also returned to Brazil. The country returned to the World Food Program (WFP) hunger map in 2021 because about 29% of the population lives with “moderate or severe food insecurity”.
Lula became the first working-class president of his administration to combine pioneering social programs with pro-market economic policies. This has allowed around 30 million people to lift themselves out of poverty in Brazil, where social inequality is glaring. An economic boom based on rising commodity prices has helped him survive several corruption scandals.