Two weeks before the referendum for a new constitution in Chile, there are two consensuses in the South American country on what will happen on September 4th and the day after. First, that the constituent process continues. Although the Convention proposal is accepted, Gabriel Boric’s ruling party has already announced its commitment to reforming the text. If the option of those who oppose wins, meanwhile much of the right – with the exception of José Antonio Kast’s Republican Party – has opened up to a series of changes to the current 1980 Basic Charter, which was drafted during Augusto’s dictatorship Pinochet, although reformed in democracy. There is also agreement on a second aspect: the result of the referendum would be less broad. While in October 2020 78% were about to change the current constitution, the Convention’s proposal is now dividing the citizenry.
The gap between the two referendum options, according to the polls, would be about 10 points in favor of those who will oppose the Chilean Convention proposal. Two weeks before the referendum there is already a ban on publishing new opinion polls, but the latest known ones show 37% for agree and 47% for disagree (UDD Citizens Panel), 42% for agree and 58 % disagree (Black&White), 37% agree and 46% disagree (Cadem) and 32.9% agree and 45.8% disagree (Pulso Ciudadano). According to centre-left electoral expert Pepe Auth, who published his projections a few days ago, opposition would remain at 53.6% and approval at 46.4%. It’s a difference that seems balanced but doesn’t leave much room for a reversal in his calculations. In a mandatory voting scenario, Auth predicts attendance of 9.2 million people, up 14% from votes in the second round of the presidential vote last December.
Unlike the accession vote in 2020, this referendum would leave half the country unsatisfied. Boric’s government, which has been in power for less than half a year and was put in place for the option of approving the proposal, seems aware of this divisive scenario. “I will play it for a Chile uniting for a new constitution that wins approval or rejection,” the president said this Saturday. Along the same lines, one of Approval’s main voices, center-left Carolina Tohá, analyzed in an interview this weekend that “the road that leads forward must pick up the vanquished on the night of September 4th.”
The campaigns of both sectors are in full swing and in the Chilean public debate practically nothing is discussed other than the referendum. But since politics started paving the way for reforms after the referendum – it seems a fact that the constituent discussion will continue after September 4th – the outcome is expected with less drama than it was a few months ago.
This Saturday, from Boric’s first ring, Minister Giorgio Jackson referred to the steps to be followed if the proposal for a new constitution is rejected. “We’re going to have to agree on a formula with the National Congress, but there’s less and less doubt on a transversal level that this has to be a call for a new process,” Jackson said, citing the fact that it will be in Parliament , which must agree to the rules for the continuation of the constitutive proceedings. In any case, said the minister, “must be dedicated and elected people to be able to come up with a new proposal if it is rejected.” In the event that the text of the Constitutional Convention is adopted, Secretary Jackson assured that they will work from the executive branch “for the implementation, adjustments and changes that need to be made”.
Boric decided to bet on the adoption of the new constitution. It was a risky move, albeit inevitable, because if the text is rejected, the government will find itself in a complex political situation and will have to govern for more than three years. With ministers in a tight spot, like Jackson himself or Home Secretary Izkia Siches, it seems clear that the President will make his first cabinet change shortly, although very likely after the referendum. If it materializes, it would be the defeat of a fundamental bet by the president: to install his fellow travelers and his generation in the first ring of power in La Moneda.