Fox News staffers were hard at work this Tuesday in Milwaukee, Wisconsin preparing for the first debate of the Republican primary for the United States presidency. It is the unofficial start of the campaign. But although the race has only just begun, one of the contenders, Donald Trump, seems to have almost reached the finish line. Such is the advantage he has in the polls that the former president has decided not to take part in the debates, faced with the impotence of his rivals, who see how one of the few options is the dynamism of a seemingly determined one campaign to change disappear. previously.
The Republican National Committee announced Monday night that other than Trump, eight candidates exceeded the party’s required minimum threshold for voting intentions and supporter donations, while those who will remain on the sidelines of the event taking place at the Fiserv Forum, where Giannis Antetokoumpo’s Milwaukee Bucks are playing, protested . On the outside of the pavilion is a giant poster with a picture of Fox presenters Bret Baier and Martha MacCallum and announcing Wednesday’s debate. Few of the former president’s supporters were seen in the area Tuesday, despite the fact that he was not present. “I love Trump”; “We love Trump,” they all repeated, refusing to answer any more questions as if they had been ordered not to say anything more.
Trump supporters, this Tuesday outside the Fiserv Forum, the Milwaukee venue where the debate is taking place. Morry Gash (AP)
The eight participants agreed to sign a pledge that they will support anyone nominated at the July 2024 Republican Convention in the same city. Milwaukee is the most important city in Wisconsin, a key state that can tip the scales in the November 5 election next year.
With his absence, Trump wants to gain a superior position over his rivals. Traditionally, incumbent presidents running for re-election almost take their nomination for granted and do not debate those challenging them. Trump was nominated almost by acclamation in 2020 and Biden is not expected to now face off against his more marginal Democratic rivals. And that’s, marginally, what the former president sees as the eight candidates coming this Wednesday to debate under his long shadow. Unsurprisingly, their voting intention exceeds that of the eight debaters combined, at 52.5%, according to the average across the major FiveThirtyEight polls. The multitude of alternatives dilutes the support of their rivals and also favors the candidate to beat.
Such is Trump’s popularity with the Republican base, who vote in the primary, that his rivals are walking a tightrope. They’re looking for a balance between distancing themselves from Trump and avoiding angering the grassroots, but recognize they’re walking a tightrope.
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Most candidates campaigned vigorously in the first states to contest the primary: Iowa, which opened fire with its January 15 election conventions, notably New Hampshire and South Carolina. But with a few exceptions (principally former Vice President Mike Pence and Ron DeSantis), most aren’t well known enough nationally, and the Fox debate offers an opportunity to get their voices heard nationally.
DeSantis, from promise to disaster
Without Trump, Ron DeSantis will take center stage. He ranks second by intention, but his campaign so far has been a disaster. When he won re-election as Florida governor last November while Trump’s nominees failed in the midterm elections, he appeared as Republicans’ big promise, but his own mistakes and attacks from Trump have prevented him from taking off. In fact, he has lost ground since the campaign began and now has just 15.2% vote intent, more than 37 points behind Trump.
DeSantis needs to shine in the debate, but in case anything was missing to ruin the tone he launches, The New York Times published his campaign strategy documents, including one with recommendations for the debate: “1. Attack Joe Biden and the media 3-5 times. 2. Present the positive vision of the DRG [gobernador Ron DeSantis] 2-3 times. 3. Defeat Vivek Ramaswamy in a reply. 4. Defending the absent Donald Trump in response to an attack by Chris Christie.
Trump’s absence is likely to reduce viewership, although Fox News is considering releasing his archival statements during the debate to give him some exposure. The former president wants to counteract this with an interview with the popular and controversial communicator Tucker Carlson, who, after being fired as Fox News’s star anchorman, has been posting his latest interventions on X, the social network formerly known as Twitter.
Despite everything, Wednesday’s event, turned into a spectacle by Fox and whose featured fragments will go viral on the networks, continues to be the best opportunity for candidates to try to stir up the election campaign. To achieve this, however, some strategists recommend taking risks. Unless DeSantis and the other alternatives convincingly challenge Trump’s ability to win over Biden in 2024, little will be done.
The eight participants in the debate. Left to right, top: Tim Scott; Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley and Vivek Ramaswamy. Bottom: Chris Christie, Mike Pence, Doug Burgum and Asa Hutchinson.AP
Alongside DeSantis and Pence, a rising star among conservatives joins the debate: biotech world’s billionaire entrepreneur and scourge of awakened ideology Vivek Ramaswamy, a sort of millennial trump of Indian parents who has risen to 9.3% in the polls . They will also visit former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley (with a 3.5% voter intent); Chris Christie, former New Jersey Governor (also 3.5%); Tim Scott, the only black Republican Senator (3.4%); Asa Hutchinson, former Governor of Arkansas (0.7%) and Doug Burgum, Governor of North Dakota (0.4%).
Of the eight, Trump’s most vocal opponents are Christie, who has called the former president a “coward” for not attending, and Hutchinson, who openly attacked him at a recent campaign rally in Iowa: “Donald Trump is not running for president.” .” Making America great again (…) Donald Trump presents himself to avoid going to jail,” he said.
Trump is traveling to Atlanta this Thursday to face his fourth indictment (in this case, attempting to overturn the 2020 Georgia state election result). There he faces $200,000 bail, which the judge set for him. But not even criminal investigations have managed to blunt Trump’s popularity with his own people.
On the contrary, they helped him raise more money and gain more support. In the eyes of the Republican base, Trump is not a suspected criminal, but a victim – yes, a martyr – of the imagined political persecution – “witch hunts” as he calls it – to which he is subjected by Joe Biden in order to prevent him from to replace him in the White House. With a few exceptions, Trump’s Republican rivals do not dare to contradict this thesis. What might seem like Trump’s vulnerability actually shields him.
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