The conflict in a transition phase. Units retreating from the north advance in two directions. Analysts read the future differently: not everyone believes that the Russians want to encircle the Ukrainians in Donbass
The conflict is in a transition phase, waiting for the Russian General Staff to attempt to restart its offensive. Meanwhile, he hits enemy targets, including Odessa, with cannons and missiles. The Ukrainians respond with counterattacks in Chernihiv.
The movements
The retreating units from the area north of Kyiv are advancing in two directions. Part goes to Belarus for a break, especially the battalions that suffered losses. Others have moved towards the southern and southeastern sectors. a grouping, and then start printing. Much will also depend on the fate of Mariupol in the south, where the resistance was based in some quarters. Moscow must take it for three reasons: a symbol, a spoils of war, a partial success that allows it to direct its forces in a different direction. The conquest of this strip of land will then complete the creation of the corridor with Crimea and create a physical neighborhood useful to the Kremlin militarily and politically.
Analysts a valuable source have different ideas about the future. The everquoted Michael Kofman exchanges cautious and lashing judgments on the Army’s conditions. Certainly not that Moscow wants to encircle the Ukrainian contingent off the Donbass, a maneuver that has been feared and emphasized several times in recent weeks. Rather, he believes that the invaders will constantly try to push the defenders back further and further. Unlike a French expert, who is convinced that the machine deployed by Kyiv must be careful not to be crushed in a trap, although he acknowledges that they are solid, welltrained, hardnosed units.
Another, in Le Monde, underscores the importance of the artificial lungs, that is, the Alliance’s supplies: ammunition, weapons, tanks, artillery, longrange rocket launchers, precision bombs, which must constantly arrive. At the moment, the Russians have done little to stop the flow of lymph from Poland: rocket attacks and some airstrikes are not enough to force a halt.
The mobilization
The Zelenskyi government claims the tsar ordered the secret mobilization of 62,000 conscripts to take part in the new campaign. Kofman again on his assessment: Moscow theoretically cannot hire recruits because it has not declared a state of war. Keep in mind that Putin called the invasion a special operation precisely to disguise the true nature of the mission or because he might have other scenarios in mind. Perhaps he is now forced to call the adventure by its real name. Also because it takes infantry to assemble other battalions and might scratch the barrel because of that.
They will be joined by Wagner’s private militiamen, perhaps Syrian mercenaries (Damascus says it has no requests), and anyone willing to sign up for firm expansion. Questions remain about the quality of the spear, but perhaps the Kremlin in keeping with tradition is focusing on quantity.
April 4, 2022 (change April 4, 2022 | 17:51)
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