by Andrea Marinelli and Guido Olimpio
A month after the attack, the Kremlin is therefore presenting its story. Instead, they are launching the thesis from Kyiv that the Russian soldiers had been informed that the campaign would end on May 9th
Moscow believes that it has achieved the goals of the first phase, now it will focus on liberating Donbass. an official announcement that partially coincides with the assessments of the Ukrainian command. The Moscow defense emphasized the state of the offensive and provided numbers and pointers to future moves. Let’s start with the casualties: 1,351 dead and 3,835 wounded, a number well below Western estimates, which range from 7,000 to 14,000, if not more. While the Pentagon has confirmed a high budget, it has always called for caution with the data as it is unverifiable. Moscow also claimed to have neutralized aviation reality seems to refute this and deposed the opposing navy, while significantly destroying the logistics network. Then there’s another point: there would be about 6,000 foreign volunteers in Ukraine’s ranks, fewer than the 1720,000 announced in recent days.
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The second aspect concerns the special operation. For defence, the preestablished goals have been achieved and pressure will increase to expand the presence in the southern part of the country. General Sergei Rudskoy did not rule out that they could attack large centers in the future, but at the moment the priorities are in the south: the separatists, he specified, currently control 93 percent of the Lugansk region and 54 percent of the Donetsk region. Interestingly, this clarification coincides with an announcement by Kiev: the Russians have managed to create a partial CrimeanDonetsk corridor, although it is not clear how deep the rule is. This was one of the goals stated by most independent observers and military hierarchies: to connect by land the peninsula that was militarily annexed by Mother Russia in 2014 and is currently only connected by a bridge.
Acquiring part of the territory could offer Putin an opportunity to secure a first victory. If that costs a monstrous second price. Moreover, according to analyst Michael Kofman, the capture of Mariupol could allow the tsar to declare the promised denazification complete: the city, which has been brutally besieged for a month, is actually being defended by the Azov battalion. The very fact that Moscow reiterates its intention to focus on Donbass is not only obvious, but represents further confirmation: a possible downsizing of the end goal provided it is not just a matter of buying time and rearranging ranks it could also be evidence that the tsar became aware of unexpected obstacles and was therefore forced to limit the action. It would be half win or half failure depending on the opinion of the sides. From Kyiv, they relaunch the thesis that the Russian soldiers had been informed that the campaign would end on May 9, the date on which the defeat of Nazism is celebrated: a particular aspect that differs greatly from the traditional obscurity stands out, in which infantrymen and officers are left minors.
Therefore, a month after the attack, the Kremlin presents its narrative, reacting to the negative scenarios of the experts and to the news describing the army in trouble, trying to send a signal that the initiative will always remain in its hands. On the spot, the information tells of battles, of maneuvers by the Ukrainians to pursue the invaders in the regions around the capital: they are quick raids to hit storage sites, troop concentrations, logistical lines of communication. Another army general, Yakov Riezantsev, was killed on the Kherson front, an episode that has yet to be confirmed: it usually takes a few days for an official announcement or a public funeral with an honor strike to receive feedback. The internet is full of photos of these ceremonies.
Zelensky’s units opened gaps in the enemy side thanks to tactics and weapons, but to conduct a counteroffensive they need artillery and tanks. You lost a lot of them too. Here’s the request for NATO to supply them, along with attack helicopters and aircraft, including those in support of ground forces (like the Sukhoi), and fighters: about thirty of each type, CNN specifies. According to the American broadcaster, the president always demanded the daily deployment of 500 Javelin antitank missiles and as many Stinger antiaircraft missiles, an important quota to be integrated into the S300 (highaltitude antiaircraft) equipment promised by Slovenia.
There is a middle ground between what has been said publicly and reality. Experts report flights likely to load new Turkish Tb2 drones and other undeclared supplies. The opposite would be strange. a conflict in which we see a lot but not everything: for this reason the judgments must always be accompanied by the conditional.
March 25, 2022 (change March 25, 2022 | 18:03)
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