Foreign policy expert Constanze Stelzenmüller believes that “the Russians have already lost the war in Ukraine in several respects” given the crimes they are committing that will make Russia a “pariah state”.
In an interview with Lusa, this was emphasized by the director of the Center for the United States and Europe at the Brookings research facility based in Washington “Russia does not observe the laws of war to a minimum,” it has been attacking civilian targets since the beginning invasion of Ukraineon February 24 last year.
“They attack civilians, homes, critical infrastructure, deport children and then put them up for adoption,” described the German analyst on the sidelines of the conference “The Free World and Its Enemies” hosted this week in Lisbon by the Luso Foundation American Agency for Development, recalling that “all of these are violations of the Geneva Conventions”.
That’s what an expert on German, European and transatlantic foreign policy, the former editor for defense and international security, said in the political section of the German weekly Die Zeit “The list is already quite long,” and unlike other wars he has covered as a journalist, “many of these crimes are recorded in files subject to judicial use” and will remain forever.
“Although [o Presidente russo] Vladimir Putin never stands trial, it’s possible Russians lie about it, but the rest of the world cannot ignore these facts,” he claimed, leading to the idea that this situation “makes it very difficult for Russians to fight this war on terms which some German apologists have suggested would help them save face”.
In this sense he argued “Without a doubt, and in many ways, the Russians have already lost the war in Ukraine, related to the isolation of Moscow, after the atrocities committed by her, in which it is “almost impossible to talk to them now”, Russian diplomats on all matters relating thereto”.
Possible scenarios for the outcome of the war
Constanze Stelzenmuller has difficulty predicting the outcome of the war, but presents two main scenarios, the first of which is “Ukraine regains its territory”, which would be “a huge strategic defeat for Russia”.
If the right armament is given,”Ukraine has a realistic prospect of regaining at least its mainland territory.said the expert, but the slowness of the allied countries in terms of the equipment to be delivered and their placement in the theater of operations is an obstacle to achieving this goal: “One has to be a little pessimistic about the deadlines of the Russian military operation and the Ukrainian resistance”warned.
In another scenario, the Moscow Armed Forces continue the offensivebecause despite the depletion of their economic resources and the fact that they are killing their own citizens, “They still have a lot of military resources that allow them to keep killing people in Ukraine and other countries if they want to.”
However, the analyst does not see “A scenario in which Russia does not appear as a pariah state” adds up to “many defeats” in public opinion.
“The more they do that, the more unity they will find in the international opposition, not only in the West, but presumably at some point in the countries of the nonWestern regions of the world as well,” he underscored, adding even starting with the times ” the countries that tend to be neutral to find this offensive for them too”.
Constanze Stelzenmüller insisted The world faces “a willful, brutal, cynical and sadistic invasion of an independent, sovereign and peaceful country that is its neighbor and cultural kinsman.” and also from “an outrageous violation of the basic rules of international order”.
“If Russia wins, everything else is at stake”warned: “If Russia loses, a lot has to be repaired, especially in Ukraine.”