According to sources, several factors are responsible for the likely increase in the next few years. There are still some COVID-delayed benefits left that can be paid out at the NFLPA's discretion, but this is the first year they won't be in large chunks. Sales this year exceeded forecasts. And the NFL expects new revenue streams next year. If it wants, the union can effectively shift some dollars that would go toward the 2024 cap to 2025 and 2026 to offset growth and thus avoid a situation where the cap increases massively this year and then becomes flat.
Lucrative new TV contracts concluded this year are a key factor in sales growth and therefore also in the share of players. The 2020 collective bargaining agreement provides for a “media kicker” that can increase the players’ share of projected revenue from 48% to up to 48.8%. (The CBA is a revenue-sharing agreement where the cap is based on the players' share of salary and benefits.)
An agreement between the NFL and the NFLPA called for the union to pay out player benefits – such as performance-based salaries, Pro Bowl salaries and tuition assistance – that were suspended during the COVID-19 pandemic in order to raise the salary cap sometime after 2023. This have now largely been paid off.
The record salary cap of $208.2 million for 2022 was the maximum the NFL and NFLPA agreed to in May 2021 to expedite repayment of a low-interest loan that allowed players to play in 2020 despite being empty Stadiums will continue to receive full salaries. In 2020, the cap was $198.2 million before dropping to $182.5 million in 2021 as part of this process. From 2013 to 2020, the cap grew by $10.74 million annually. The jump to a cap of $224.8 million this year marked a new high, and growth in 2024 is likely to be similar.
The free agent negotiation period begins on Monday, March 11 at 12 p.m. ET, and the 2024 league year begins on Wednesday, March 13 at 4 p.m. ET.