Surprise ! Saudi Arabia and China are nearing the point where Chinese leaders are discussing the most important diplomatic event between China and the Arab world since the communist takeover of China in 1949. But this rise in Chinese influence in the region was predictable.
Beijing’s skillful diplomacy in the Arab world has been at work for decades. The Chinese leadership’s patience is beginning to pay off as the relative power of the United States dwindles and China has long since become the Arab world’s most important trading partner. The Americans remain the main military players in the region. But how long? It seems that we have to get used to smooth alliance games. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman appears to have found a new wife for his harem. Will this new woman start a palace revolution?
- Listen to Loïc Tassé’s editorial on Benoit Dutrizac’s podcast above QUB radio :
1. What are China’s traditional policies in the region?
China is pursuing a conciliatory and cautious policy in the region. It has managed the tour de force to be close to both the Israelis and the Palestinians or the Iranians and the Saudis. But its official policy hides preferences. She has been committed to the Iranians for a long time and gave them help for their nuclear program as early as 1985. Since then, it has officially opposed Iran’s nuclear program, but continues to invest heavily in Iran.
2. What interest does Saudi Arabia have in rapprochement with China?
The rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and China should come as no surprise as the US has practically stopped buying Saudi oil and China has become Riyadh’s main buyer. Saudi Arabia supplies China with about 17% of its imported oil. Above all, the Saudi leaders see the end of the oil era coming. Soon Europe will not need so much oil. The conversion of the Saudi economy is therefore urgent. China, with its new Silk Roads, advanced technologies and cheap labor, promises to help Saudi Arabia achieve its new goals.
3. What interest does China have in a rapprochement with Saudi Arabia?
The Saudis have a lot of money at their disposal and their workforce is not sufficient to realize their new economic projects. Therefore, the Chinese economy will benefit from this convergence. In addition, Saudi Arabia is one of the most important centers of influence in the Arab world. The Chinese leadership can only rejoice in a stronger presence there, especially since that presence is helping to weaken that of the United States.
4. Does China have a new strategy in this part of the world?
China has been pursuing the same strategy for decades. For her, the world is one giant game of Go, where she places her pieces wisely to expand her control. China’s successes are particularly evident in the economic sector. However, her military progress shows that within a few years she could replace the Americans to protect certain countries and ensure the stability of the region.
5. How does this rapprochement weaken the United States?
American leaders believe the Chinese are unable to ensure regional stability. You just warned the countries of the region against Chinese temptation. In reality, no one is irreplaceable.
