The Senate was due to proceed this week with processing the transitional PEC drafted by the elected government of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT). Senators are analyzing the project today (6th) in the CCJ (Commission on Constitution and Justice) and PT members are still working to try to increase support for the text in the stands.
The main goal of this proposed constitutional amendment is to free up resources for the implementation of campaign promises, mainly for the recomposition of the Bolsa Família. But what is this PEC?
- This is a constitutional change must be approved by a majority of Congress (Congressmen and Senators);
- That PEC rules out spending on Bolsa Família the socalled spending ceiling, ie it is not included in a spending limit in the national budget.
Is only the Bolsa Família left of the ceiling? The text is subject to change pending approval, but the original proposal, defended by Lula, envisages it falling outside the cap as well:
- expenses with socialecological projects or projects related to climate changeunder the executive branch, funded by donations
- expenses of federal educational institutions be financed from their own income, donations or agreements with other federal bodies or private bodies
If the PEC is approved, when does the change come into effect?
- The original text envisages a change from 2023;
- However, negotiations are underway to anticipate the realization of investments beyond the spending limit if the government registers the inflow of extraordinary income as early as 2022
What is the path for approval of a PEC?
- The PEC must be admitted to the CCJ (Committee on Constitution and Justice) of the Senate for at least 14 out of 27 senators of the college.
- After this step, the text goes into the plenum of the house and it has to be analyzed in two rounds the proposal has to be Passed by 49 out of 81 senators🇧🇷
- Once the analysis is completed by the senators, the PEC goes to the Chamber.
- among the MPsthe idea is to merge the text of the PEC with a project that has already gone through the House CCJ and the Select Committee so that the text goes straight to plenary.
- This means that voting will also take place in two rounds, which is the minimum required 308 votes out of 513 federal deputies.
What was negotiated for approval of the proposal?
- So that’s what Lula did guideTransition members and allies use the PEC as a “thermometer” to measure the acceptance of the presidentelect among the benches.
- formation of allied base PT for 2023. Without the appointment of a civil house minister responsible for the political articulation of the executive branch, Lula himself and his deputy Geraldo Alckmin (PSB) entered the negotiations.
- There is also the formation of party blocs that will form the executive boards of the two chambers and chair important commissions in Congress.
How will the Bolsonarist base react to the PEC? Allies of President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) are opposed to the text of the PEC and, above all, to its processing in the House of Representatives. They are working to shift analysis of the proposal on two fronts:
- Senate leader Carlos Portinho (PLRJ) requested the CCJ to hold at least one public hearing with economists to discuss this fiscal implications of the PEC
- There is still a possibility 24 hour view request to delay the vote on the text in committee
What are the calculations of PT? The assessment of the PT members is that the proposal will be approved by the CCJ, but with difficulty.
- In the PT account, the PEC has 16 quorum votes two more than the minimum.
- In the plenum, the estimate is 51 votes also two more than the minimum number
Which parties signaled this vote in favor of the PEC in the Senate?
- The PT sought support from centrist parties such as the PSD and MDB. In the Chamber, Lula sought dialogue with Chamber President Arthur Lira (PPAL)
- However, votes are expected from senators from other parties such as Podemos and PSDB as they have a good relationship with Senate President Rodrigo Pacheco (PSDMG), who is also campaigning for the text to be adopted.