the siege of Mariupol sums up the dilemma of Putin and Zelensky

by Andrea Marinelli and Guido Olimpio

The city on the Azov Sea has been besieged, devastated and surrounded for weeks, but it is still holding out. The Russian tsar can redefine the notion of victory or make the obsession bloodier, the Ukrainian leader must set a limit. And his goal

Mariupol exhausted, devastated, surrounded: about 90% of the buildings are destroyed. And yet it still holds. I’m not so optimistic that two or three days or even a week will be enough to wrap things up. Unfortunately not, the big city, said the head of the selfproclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic, Denis Pushilin. The words of the proRussian official sum up all the difficulties faced by Vladimir Putin’s army on the battlefield. The Sea of ​​Azov’s main port, which would allow Crimea to be united with Russia by land, has been under siege for weeks as the Russian offensive grows bloodier, hitting civilians, in a bid to force the hand of the resistance.

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The Kremlin is putting the soldiers in the helicopter, says US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and gives an impression of the situation on the battlefield: Losses are high, estimated yesterday at a thousand dead and wounded per day, an estimate that is always approximate. Putin’s war continues on three fronts, perhaps too many for the forces on the ground. The Russians are gaining positions in the south, but are met with fierce resistance in the north and northeast: will they restart, or will they insist on the war of attrition and ravage the cities with cannon fire? Meanwhile, a chemical plant in Sumy in the northeast was hit during the night, where a leak of ammonia was reported, which was then stopped: the Russian attack Moscow claims it was a provocation by Ukrainian forces has raised fears Moscow may Hit chemical plants and use them as a weapon.

Another attack hit a military training area in Rivne in the northwest. The Russian military claims to have killed more than 80 foreign mercenaries and nationalists, a recurring target in official statements: an action carried out with airlaunched cruise missiles to neutralize the Novaya Lubomirka training camp in the Rivne region. Two Russian ships later appeared in a longrange attack in the port of Odessa and opened fire indiscriminately, but were reportedly repelled by artillery. The Russian military eventually seized five ships carrying thousands of tons of grain at the port of Berdyansk in southern Ukraine, about eighty kilometers east of Mariupol, the governor of Zaporizhia said.

Analysts sometimes contradictingly continue to believe that the army does not have the strength to primarily surround and capture Kyiv, but is always able to lead the initiative. British experts remind that the Ukrainian resistance well masked its setbacks, Kiev communications managed to impose a narrative of the conflict. At dawn, a shopping center in the capital was bombed, an obvious civilian target, but for the proRussians it was used to hide military assets: when cities eventually become battlefields, the differences can be subtle. Nothing is ever clear, we often recall this to emphasize how difficult it is to see into the fog of war: everyone is firing bullets and propaganda. Moscow could unleash a new offensive by early April, and some US interpretations also urge caution. Belarus’ position is at stake: every day direct involvement in the conflict is seen as imminent.

Now there are those who suspect and hope that Putin will redefine victory: the conquests in the south may be enough to prove a success. The alternative, however, is allout combat with long sieges, the need for reinforcements, and a bloody bulletin. difficult to predict the intentions of the leader. Zelensky also near a crossroads: the country was demolished bit by bit, the victim of the huge population, the army suffered significant losses. Perhaps he can use the moment to control the auxiliary flow and give his soldiers a break. Above all, however, he will have to determine where the limit lies: some American sources have not concealed questions about the president’s ultimate goal in the past few days. As Michael Kofman, a CNA expert on Russia, clarified, we don’t know if we’re near the beginning, middle, or end of the conflict: if we enter a new phase, the Russians could compensate for the few results achieved that field by increasing destructive power.

March 21, 2022 (change March 21, 2022 | 17:44)

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