Brazil is trying to work together through diplomacy to find a peaceful solution to the dispute between Venezuela and Guyana over the Essequiba territory in Guyana. In a move that could threaten the continent’s stability, Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro called for a referendum on the annexation of the region, which accounts for half of Guyana’s territory.
Sources within the Brazilian government heard the portal Metropolises stated that the country “defends a peaceful solution to this controversy” and that it “wishes to recall the commitment to consolidate a zone of peace and cooperation between American States.”
Despite the growing tension, Itamaraty continues to negotiate the matter privately with those involved and other regional actors, trying to prevent the public debate from heating up further.
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The climate between the two countries involved is bad. On social media, the Venezuelan leader, who is under international pressure to take part in free elections, defended the incorporation of part of the neighboring country.
“We firmly believe in dialogue and agreement based on respect for the inalienable and historic right that we have as a people. Essequiba Guyana is ours because of its heritage and centuries of struggle and sacrifice. Let us create true peace and prosperity for our boys and girls,” Maduro wrote of the region, which is rich in resources such as oil.
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International dilemma
The situation in South America is being monitored by the International Court of Justice (ICJ), which met last week at the Peace Palace the court’s headquarters in The Hague, Netherlands to hear submissions from the two nations. The Guyanese agent at the hearing, Carl B. Greenidge, opposed the holding of the national vote called by the Venezuelan government.
“The referendum that Venezuela scheduled for December 3, 2023 was designed to win overwhelming popular support, reject jurisdiction and anticipate a future trial. In doing so, they seek to undermine the authority and effectiveness of the main judicial authority,” said Guyana’s representative.
In response, Venezuelan Vice President Delcy Rodríguez accused Guyana of “judicial colonialism” for appealing the annexation to the International Court of Justice. “We have come to defeat the claim of judicial colonialism in Guyana that uses this court to stop what cannot be stopped. “On December 3rd, Venezuelans will vote,” the Venezuelan promised.
The trial with the two countries has been ongoing at the International Court of Justice since 2018, but gained momentum and speed with the call for a vote in Venezuela.
Early result
In an interview with MetropolisesProfessor Alcides Cunha Costa Vaz from the Institute of International Relations at the University of Brasília (UnB) estimates that the referendum called by Maduro has a high chance of approval.
“The probability of passing is very high. Venezuela is facing general elections in 2024. And this is a historic demand for the country. When you look at Venezuelan maps, the region appears striped and is referred to as the “Distress Zone.” Something like that can unite the population. And the five questions in the referendum are aimed at supporting incorporation,” he commented.
In addition, the scientist points out that Venezuela does not recognize the International Court of Justice as the competent body to adjudicate the case, which makes attempts to negotiate difficult. “Even if a decision is successful in court, it will never be recognized [pela Venezuela]”, he explained.
Ukraine war… in South America?
In view of the escalation of tensions, concerns are being expressed that a scenario similar to the RussiaUkraine conflict could only repeat itself in South America. This is not a distant alternative either, emphasizes Vaz.
On the Guyanese side, there is strong support from the United States aimed at protecting commercial interests. “In 2022, Guyana offered oil exploration points in the shallow waters of the territory. One of the first candidates was the oil company Exxonmobil. “The American government supports this interest with clear signals from the embassy in Georgetown (capital of the South American country) for military cooperation,” said Costa Vaz.
In a recent statement, the new US ambassador to the country, Nicole Theriot, reiterated the prospect of an American military presence. “[…] We will work to support our bilateral partnership, enhance mutual security objectives, confront overlapping threats and promote regional security,” the US diplomat said.
On the Venezuelan side, Russia, the country’s most important arms supplier, is also monitoring the region. “During the Trump administration in the US, when the possibility of American intervention was being discussed, the Russian government landed two bombers in Caracas (capital of Venezuela) and made it clear that it was against it. Here we have some of the largest oil reserves in the world, which is of interest to Russia,” Vaz recalled.
In a scenario with superpowers on opposing sides in a military conflict, even the United Nations Security Council’s hands would be tied. This is happening because along with China, France and the United Kingdom; The permanent seats include the United States and Russia, which have veto power. This allows them to block resolutions regardless of the support of the international community. Therefore, they have the ability to block measures even if they are aimed at ending the confrontation.
And Brazil?
Although the discussion does not directly concern Brazil, political analysts say the dispute could lead to Itamaraty having to take a more forceful position. Otherwise, the escalation of tensions could also affect neighboring regions, as André César, political scientist at Hold Assessoria, estimates.
“They are neighbors who have always had a peaceful relationship with us. A possible conflict between the two would therefore become a problem that could affect the surrounding population and our own politics. It is an issue that is literally knocking on the door. Remember the case of the Venezuelans who entered here through Roraima. Anything that is a border issue is sensitive. There’s no way out of this,” he says.
However, this view is not unanimous. Other experts assume that Brazil tends not to be directly affected. “The controversy has been going on for years and we have never taken a very clear position, apart of course from the historical tendency of diplomacy to emphasize the peaceful resolution of conflicts,” said Nicholas Borges, international policy analyst at BMJ Consultores Associados.
Strategic peace
“Brazilian interests are also at stake. “The Venezuelan recovery would benefit bilateral trade and also lead to bilateral investments in the oil sector,” emphasizes Professor Alcides Cunha Costa Vaz.
The Brazilian plan is to commemorate its commitment to the establishment of a Zone of Peace and Cooperation a treaty initiated by Brazil that aims to promote regional cooperation and maintain peace in the South Atlantic region.
However, there are fears that this will not be enough. “Brazilian diplomacy would have to go beyond this narrative and reiterate that the eventual annexation could harm the negotiations that Venezuela is negotiating with the United States on economic embargoes,” commented Borges.