The Patriots are 1-5. In games against the Bills and Dolphins, a score of 1-7 is very likely. They’re circling the drain in the first “lost season” of Bill Belichick’s career as a head coach.
By “lost” I mean hopeless before Thanksgiving. Play the string. We are entering a time of uncertainty where no one knows if they will be here next year.
The 2000 Patriots weren’t like that. Bill was new. They built. Even the 1995 Browns started the season 3-1 and were 4-4 midway through the season before owner Art Modell announced the team would be moving to Baltimore and the season was ended.
This season is different. The Patriots will likely eke out a win at halftime. They have become one of the worst teams in the league. There are no injuries. It’s not the schedule. The nosedive began after Thanksgiving last year and is at 13 games and counting.
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At the end of last year, they were 2-5 with wins over Arizona and Miami when both used backup quarterbacks. They have a single win against the Jets this season. That’s 3-10 if you score at home (and I hope that’s the case).
They sway before the anthem is over. Here’s the latest update on the opening deficit since the high-scoring and highly entertaining loss to the Vikings on Turkey Day.
- at Raiders: 13-3 (halftime)
- vs. Saints: 21-0 (halftime)
- at Cowboys: 28-3 (halftime)
- vs. Dolphins: 17-3 (halftime)
- vs. Eagles: 16-0 (end of first quarter)
- at Bills: 7-0 (after opener)
- vs. Dolphins: 14-7 (early third quarter, Tua Tagovailoa out for Miami)
- vs. Bengals: 22-0 (halftime)
- at Raiders: 17-3 (halftime)
- at the Cardinals: 13-7 (second quarter, no Kyler Murray)
- vs. Bills: 17-7 (halftime)
Your main tools for digging holes are penalties and turnovers. You do it to yourself. They did it again on Sunday in Las Vegas.
Despite Belichick’s “restart” edict after the Saints debacle, the defense found itself on the receiving end of a 16-play, 69-yard opening drive that ended with a field goal. It was actually the Raiders’ second field goal, as the first time, Vegas was given new life by a Patriots leverage penalty. The offense took control, calling penalties on the first two snaps, dropping a screen pass and hitting a punt.
At least this week, the Patriots stayed close enough to end up finding an interesting way to self-immolate, like they did last year against the Raiders and Bengals and this year against the Eagles and Dolphins. Penalties, dropouts and in-game mismanagement were the culprits on Sunday.
Since Thanksgiving last year, the Patriots have consistently gotten off to slow starts, often falling behind by double digits. Bill Belichick talks about the slow starts after the Week 6 loss to the Raiders.
Combine the things on the field, the constant drip of annual roster mismanagement, the mis-spent money, and the unwatchable offense committed every week, and it’s more likely than not that the Bill Belichick era is in its death throes.
Especially since Robert Kraft’s mildly worded “improve or else” edict from March is still in effect.
You can’t literally make $50 million in two years with a flamethrower like Belichick did with Jonnu Smith and Nelson Agholor in 2021 and 2022. Not after refusing to pay the greatest quarterback in NFL history the same amount over the same period in 2020.
You can’t as a coach make a cavalier decision about who will run your offense like Belichick did in 2022 and ruin the development of a capable rookie quarterback on his rookie contract.
And if you want to debate “capable,” always remember and never forget what Belichick said about Mac Jones in late July 2022:
“I think Mac did a great job,” Belichick said. “He worked extremely hard. He has a tremendous work ethic in all areas. I think there is a dramatic improvement. His physical work and conditioning, working on his mechanics, working on his footwork, working on his understanding of our offense, of the opponents’ abilities. Defenses, the situations – all those things.
“He’s made tremendous progress,” Belichick said of Jones. “He did a great job last year, but he’s starting this year from a much, much higher level than last year. So his offseason work has been significant, and I think everyone realizes how well he’s prepared and how much he still has ahead of him. “He was further along than he was a year ago.”
You can’t be the worst team in the NFL when your owner is used to having the best team in the NFL.
The Senior Bowl is now four months away. Free agency opens in about five months. The draft will be available in six months.
It’s time for Kraft to start deciding whether Belichick will have the same role, a lesser role or no role at the end of this season. And Belichick should start noodling about whether he wants to continue. An important checkpoint is coming up for this team.
The trade deadline will be reached in two weeks – on Halloween. Obviously, the Patriots aren’t going to make a long run. But they have countless assets that they could transfer in exchange for picks.
These are the players on expiring contracts that other teams might covet: Hunter Henry, Trent Brown, Kyle Dugger, Kendrick Bourne, Josh Uche, Mike Onwenu, Mike Gesicki, Ezekiel Elliott and Anfernee Jennings.
Uche, Dugger and Onwenu are close to their second contracts and were considered semi-big ticket free agents (though all will face a market downturn that comes with the team’s success). All of that could give a boost to a playoff contender in need. If the Patriots don’t sign her, should they move her and get something in return?
What about Mac Jones? As a quarterback in the third year of his rookie contract, he might be worth a third-rounder. Especially if another team believes Jones doesn’t really stink and is a victim of circumstance.
Will Belichick want to sell and add picks? Or does he want to get as many wins as possible this season?
The bigger question is whether Kraft would overrule any selloff or demand one. The Patriots currently have projected cap space of $95 million for 2024. They are on track to be a top-10 pick.
Does Kraft want Belichick to help rebuild at quarterback? We will have an answer to this question in the next two weeks.
This is what happens at 1-5 when 1-7 stares at you in the kisser.