The trend of irregular arrivals in Italy took a very worrying turn in 2023. To certify it, there are now also the numbers of the Keep them in mind based on the period from January 1st to March 28th. Three months in which our authorities counted at least 180 landings per day on average. 27,219 migrants arrived compared to 6,708 in the same period of 2022. A significant increase that makes us fear the worst in anticipation of summer.
The boom of the Tunisian route
What weighs the most on the current trend is undoubtedly the trend of Tunisian route. In particular, from January 1st to date, the Viminale has counted 15,537 irregular arrivals in Italy from the Tunisian coasts. In the first three months of 2022, the same number had stalled at 1,525. On balance, the increase is in the order of 920%.
But the numbers say a lot more. Of the more than 15,000 migrants who arrived from Tunisia, only 1,859 have Tunisian nationality. An increase compared to the 918 of the first three months of 2022, but still rather limited compared to the overall incidence of the route that affects the North African country. So this means that the majority of migrants who have landed from Tunisia are from sub-Saharan Africa. And indeed, according to the Interior Ministry, Ivorians top the ranking of the most represented nationalities among the people who arrived in Italy in 2023.
There are 3,815 citizens of Ivory Coast arrived between Lampedusa and Sicily on January 1st. Behind them instead are the Guineans with 3,296 landed migrants. Tunisia is only fifth behind in this special classification Pakistan And Bangladesh. Figures and data that the lack of a real “Exodus” by Tunisians exhausted by the economic crisis sweeping the country. People are fleeing Tunisia, but the numbers don’t seem high enough to justify the boom on the route, which emerged from Interior Ministry surveillance.
The trend can therefore be explained by the fact that, in contrast to the previous year, it is mainly migrants from other countries who leave the Tunisian coasts. And perhaps in this sense it is possible to recognize a responsibility of Government of Tunis, with President Kais Saied, who in recent days has spoken out against the presence of sub-Saharan citizens on his territory.
Statements that may have given further Entry on departures to Italy. However, the Tunisian crisis can only partially explain the increase in landings. On the contrary, the phenomenon is associated with other almost completely new elements in the dynamics of the shortest route in the central Mediterranean.
Landings from Libya are also increasing
The situation regarding Libyan route. Or rather to the Libyan routes. Because for a few months we have been starting from here not only from Tripolitania, but also from Cyrenaica. That is, the region controlled by General Haftar. At least 10,628 migrants left Libya in 2023, a 152% increase compared to the first three months of 2022.
What matters is the opening of a new migration channel. More and more fishing boats are being used in the east of the country to divert Egyptian and Bangladeshi migrants, as well as Pakistanis, to Italy. These are boats that can carry at least 500 or 600 people, hence the dramatic increase in the number of landings from Libya.
Landings from the Turkish route are declining
The only route with a negative balance compared to 2022 is, paradoxically, the one that was most talked about at the beginning of the year. That is the Turkish routethe same traveled from the ship sunk offshore Cutro in February that killed more than 100 people. From January 1 to March 28, 2023, 693 migrants disembarked from Turkey. In the same period last year, however, the number remained at 916.
Finally, the contribution of Algerian route, ie the migrant trade in Italy, which mainly affects the coasts of Sardinia. In the first three months, 199 migrants from Algeria arrived. However, that’s an increase when you consider that the figure for the same route spoke of 55 arrivals in 2022.