If the Russian defeat of these days turns out to be a real caporetto, we must be careful that the troops of Moscow do not find a Piave for a bloody and devastating recovery. The invaders admitted retreating from almost the entire Kharkiv region, but the real turning point of the war will take place in Donbass. Putin will do everything not to lose it and will conquer it, even occupying 45% of the Donetsk region, which stubbornly remains in Ukrainian hands. The new tsar could decide on the general mobilization, theoretically involving a million people or, in any case, a massive one. But how many young Russians are willing to sacrifice themselves for the Kremlin in Ukraine?
The armed forces of Kyiv, having broken through enemy lines at the gates of Donbass, will try to advance, liberating the territory lost in the summer. Because now the yellow and blue flag would be flying in Kreminna. If confirmed, it would be the first city in the fully Russian-held Lugansk region to return to Ukrainian hands. Kreminna is close to Severedonetsk and Lysychanks, the strategic cities that were lost in the summer despite fierce resistance. Back then it was the Russians who bombed the barricaded Kiev forces, but now the Ukrainian artillery armed with the American Himars will pay off. Fierce fighting is also going on in Lyman, another strategic point in the Donbass. If liberated, the Russians will no longer be able to attack Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, guaranteeing that Kiev forces stationed over much of the Donetsk region will not be taken from the rear. After the Ukrainian advance, there is also a tough fight on the contact line in front of Donetsk airport. If a miracle allowed the Ukrainians to recover the rubble by actually entering the rebel “capital,” then Caporetto would be concrete.
Ukrainian forces must be careful not to over-expose and stretch their lines while sparing men and resources. We have 60 to 90 days of combat ahead before the Winter General slows down operations. Kyiv might have a few more tricks up their sleeves on the southern front, where it has been more difficult so far. Alongside the West’s new and effective weapons, NATO support has been fundamental in terms of intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance, thanks to satellites and drones, which are vital to conventional and modern warfare. And the perfect interpreter on site was General Oleksandr Sirsky, commander of the land forces, who has always advocated cooperation with NATO.
The Russians were taken by surprise, but they also paid the price for tactics and strategies that were still stuck in the Cold War, if not before World War II. The distribution of power also played a role. Now it will be easy for the hawks to point out that 120,000 men are not enough to hold a fortress of over a thousand kilometers that occupies 20% of Ukraine before defeat these days. The danger is that Putin is persuaded to take the final step by unleashing all-out war with a massive mobilization. It won’t attract a million men, but even half or fewer will likely make a difference. The problem is that young Russians from big cities won’t be too keen on picking up a gun. The alternative is the Russian bear’s previous tactic: time. The main thing is to hold the conquests of the Donbass and to advance at the best moments, maybe a kilometer a day.
The 3,000 square kilometers most of which the Ukrainians have liberated in the last few days shows that they can not only resist but also advance by defeating the enemy. But after the caporetto at the gates of the Donbass, a Russian piave is always threatening and the end of the war is still a long way off, like any glimmer of peace.