From Warsaw we head quickly towards the southeast on wide three-lane highways. Radzyn Podlaski, about 165 kilometers away, can be reached via country roads without shoulders that slowly lead through villages, roundabouts and intersections in the Lublin region. Streets that narrow, from the brand new skyscrapers to the wooden houses with gable roofs and the solid single-family homes, from the trendy establishments to the few city bars, from the international chains and design stores to the modest clothing stores. They are the two poles, the modern, cosmopolitan and liberal and the other that prefers tradition, the nation and Catholic values. The one who will vote this Sunday mainly for the center-right liberal Civic Platform (PO), and the one who will mainly support the ultra-conservative Law and Justice party (PiS), but which is the favorite in the polls in the parliamentary election works without a government majority.
The differences between rural and urban areas are decreasing in the countryside, but where you live still makes a difference. There is also a geographical division: the rural areas in the north and west are more developed, while the south and east are poorer. Overall, per capita income in rural areas averages 1,639 zloty per month (357 euros), compared to 2,098 in urban areas, according to a study published in 2022 by the Polish Statistics Office. The need is greater in the cities: 19.9% live below the poverty line, in the cities it is 6.6%. 49.2% of social assistance will be received in these areas, where 40% of the Polish population lives.
Sociologist and political analyst Jaroslaw Flis from Jagiellonian University in Krakow, Poland’s second-largest city, says PiS is “the natural choice of the disadvantaged.” The ruling party, seeking a third term, has developed a social welfare program that will win it the support of those who feel they have lost out in the social and economic changes that followed the fall of communism in 1989. The star program is the 500+, which grants 110 euros per month per child, up from 176 euros from 2024, as the government promised as part of the campaign.
Andrzej Renal, a 64-year-old retired bricklayer traveling through Radzyn Podlaski (population around 15,000) by bike, assures that he and his friends will vote for PiS. “I have seen many governments and the only one that helps the poor is PiS,” he argues. In the 2019 elections, 53.4% of residents voted for Jaroslaw Kaczynski’s party. The city’s deputy mayor, Slawomir Lipski, does not dare to predict whether he will repeat this victory, “but the population figure shows that there are 6,000 pensioners who receive the 13th and 14th special payments,” another PiS social program.
Marta and Stanislaw, a couple aged 34 and 32 with a two-year-old daughter who work in technology companies in Warsaw (population almost two million) and prefer not to give their last name, believe that PiS “knows how to buy votes. “ and how to manipulate older people.” The couple emphasizes “the deep hatred for [Donald] Tusk,” which promotes public television with messages that resonate. For example, Renal says that he doesn’t watch TV because he doesn’t see the PO leader: “It makes me very angry to see him. He just wants power. He sold half of Poland and wants to do it again. Everything he says is lies.”
Warsaw’s young parents who will vote for PO believe that fear of losing social benefits concerns part of the electorate, but what worries them is the country’s democratic tendency. “They are taking us towards Russia or Hungary,” he says. At the door of a bookstore where they bought several books, Marta complains that in rural areas they are “more susceptible” to propaganda and “more culturally traditional.”
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The sociologist Flis points out that “being socially liberal is natural for Polish patricians, but not for the rest.” These patricians, as he calls the segment of the population with a higher level of education, live predominantly in large cities. “As the level of urbanization decreases, support the change from the Citizens’ Platform to PiS,” he emphasizes. In 2019, PiS received 56% of the vote in rural areas, while PO added 41% in cities with more than 500,000 inhabitants. “What is interesting, however, is that the Third Way and the Confederacy enjoy almost equal support throughout society.”
Hundreds of thousands of people take part in a Civic Platform march in Warsaw on October 1st. Maciek Jazwiecki/Agencja Wyborcz (Agencja Wyborcza.pl via Portal)
General opinions about abortion, the rights of the LGBTI community or migrants also change when you leave the city. “Warsaw is multicultural; “There is a lot of culture here, there is always something to do, you hear all kinds of languages and the salaries are higher too,” says 24-year-old speech therapist Julia, who also does not want to give her last name. He hasn’t decided on his vote yet, but he knows it won’t be for the PiS. He says he reports on TikTok how Damian, a 25-year-old truck driver from Radzyn Podlaski, who is expecting a child. He realizes that he will vote for the far right of the Confederacy because “they promise to stop immigration from Muslim countries and reduce taxes.” The young man defends traditions and affirms that “what they do on the marches.” [el colectivo LGTBI] It’s bad for children’s morale. “Let them do whatever they want, but at home.”
Radzyn Podlaski is colored red on the Hate Map, an initiative that locates the areas and communities where discriminatory speech has been approved, such as those that have established “zones free of LGTBI ideology.” Deputy Mayor Lipski is trying to get away with saying that they haven’t had their European funds cut off, which is Brussels’ response to these homophobic gestures. In his case, he says, they “only” adopted a resolution to “defend the family” that excludes everyone who does not consist of a man and a woman.
Cultural distance
The rural-urban divide is also cultural, although it is narrowed by the use of the Internet (81.2% versus 90.6%). Many people in the villages consume large quantities of public television, traditional dishes and disco polo, a dance music popular in the 1980s, as Marta Klekotko, a sociologist at the Silesian University in Katowice, tells us on the phone, but above all she warns against simplification and generalization . According to the sociologist, the influence of the Catholic Church also tends to be greater in small towns.
“The PiS gave back pride to people who felt excluded,” the expert explains to the voters of PO “more up to date.” According to Klekotko, there is a more left-wing part of the opposition that has traveled, is young and has a more urban lifestyle and is embarrassed to be associated with the Polish stereotype. This model, which depicts “ordinary people who are not supposed to behave when traveling abroad and vote for PiS,” is mockingly illustrated with a fictional couple named Janusz and Grazyna.
Analyst Adam Traczyk, director of the “More in common” project, which aims to reduce polarization in society, recalls the classic message spread by some media in the 1990s: “We, the cosmopolitan elite, are advancing into Europe, “While you, the uneducated people, are blocking our path to enlightenment,” he explains. “In addition to the redistribution of wealth, PiS has also achieved a symbolic redistribution of respect.” According to the expert, this is done by attacking the cultural elites and at the same time by defending popular culture.
“We are proud to represent the Polish countryside and we want to continue to do so,” Kaczynski said during the campaign. PiS has focused on rural areas in the election campaign for fear of losing support after some setbacks. In addition to inflation, he has had some tensions with his allies in local government over local autonomy and because promised EU stimulus funds to rebuild the economy post-Covid have not arrived. This is the 35.4 billion euros that Brussels blocked due to attacks on the rule of law.
However, PiS’s main problem in the countryside was the grain crisis, which brought it loud protests from dissatisfied farmers due to the destabilization of the market after the introduction of Ukrainian grain. The government solved this with a unilateral veto on the import of agricultural products from Ukraine. Piotr Naumiuk, 40 years old, owner of the Stepków silo, also in the Lublin region, believes that the solution came late and badly and expects further difficulties: “Ukrainian grain will go to other countries like Germany, and that closes markets for us” . Despite the unrest, he believes that small farmers, who make up 80% of the sector, “will continue to support PiS because they receive fertilizer subsidies and the government compensates them if they sell the grain below the production price.”
Amid the confusion, the PO tried to attract dissatisfied rural voters by signing the leader of the Agrounia movement, Michal Kolodziejczak, but Naumiuk doesn’t think it will work: “In Agrounia they see him as a traitor.” Unless there are any surprises , the polls suggest that urban Poland will once again vote overwhelmingly for the PO-led opposition this Sunday and rural Poland will once again favor the PiS. Two societies in one, with different paths and speeds.
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