You’ve been strolling the streets of for some time now Sarajevo It may happen that a dark and distant sound is captured, some kind of soundtrack which at times forms the backdrop for the city’s traffic. It is the sound that is produced by the exercises made in heaven by Bosnia Herzegovina fromeuphoriathe peacekeeping force ofEuropean Union which quickly took care of shipping after the outbreak of the Ukraine crisis new quotas to protect the small Balkan country. The Bosnian Serb leader in particular determines the political instability Milorad Dodik which seeks the secession of Republic of Srpska (one of the two entities that together with the Croatian Muslim Federation make up the country), Bosnia is actually one of the contexts most likely to be affected war in Ukraine. Fears highlighted by Prime Minister Mario Draghiaccording to which it is necessary “to bring back the political and institutional crisis that has paralyzed the country since last July” and resume the path of reforms in order to get closer to theEuropean Union. Even the Secretary General of NATO, Jens StoltenbergQuoted from Brussels the Bosnian case as one of the scenarios “Endangered by Russian pressure”.
The perceived threat dimension that prevails in the institutional environment is the international interpretation of a concern that is also strongly perceived at the local level. Many citizens have thrown themselves on the path in recent weeks supermarkets to empty the shelves oil, flour and other basic needs. “Economic uncertainty, rising prices and inflation are omnipresent consequences of war, but they should not be underestimated, especially in BosniaHerzegovina,” he explains Rodolfo Toe, political scientist and expert in the Balkan region Here the citizens come out of an economic crisis that has been going on for ten years and could decide to protest violently at the new increases to demand a change at the top. And at that point, yes, someone could seize the opportunity to bring down the already precarious situation.
The Balkan countries and the Russia they are not just elements of Identity and Religious Community. The shadow that gives Kremlin extends over the villages offormer Yugoslavia above all, it has the contours of an armed wing. And it is above all this detail that raises so many concerns at the summits of the European Union and the European Union Born. “Let’s take the case of Serbiawe can say that it is a European country for economic endeavors, but it is heavily dependent on Russia security policy. Moscow has always supplied them weapons and rockets“. At the same time, however, Serbia cannot afford to take a position too distant from the European leaders by providing support Putin. At stake is the good outcome of the long process of joining the Group of 27, which is expected to end in 2025 (along with the Montenegro).
Despite the complex interweaving of ties linking the fate of the Balkans with that of the Russians, Toè argues that there are “no immediate risks to the security of the region, for a very practical reason: Moscow has no way of influencing the situation, it will not send troops, it will not take military action in Bosnia and Serbia to enforce the annexation of Republika Srpska by Bosnia Paradoxically, what is happening might have one almost calming effect, at least in the short term. Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik, and Serbs in general, may feel much more isolated, somehow forced to have one more forgiving attitude to the international community”.
Although the situation is now under control, it doesn’t help that the fallout from the Ukraine crisis is weighing on Bosnia and Herzegovina’s stability in what has been a particularly delicate year: that of the 30 years since the conflict began in the 1990s and the one that saw it will take place political elections more complicated than ever, due to the difficulties in finding an agreement on the electoral reform. “Contrary to what is happening in the Baltic countries, where the majority of citizens are in favor of joining NATO, in BosniaHerzegovina the issue is extremely contentious and it is a difference in contexts that is worth emphasizing. Muslims and Croats favor rapprochement with the Atlantic Alliance, but the Serbs obviously don’t, they perceive it as the enemy army that bombed them in 1999 says the analyst An escalation cannot therefore be ruled out. It could happen if NATO actually carries out the integration of Bosnia and provokes the reaction of the Serbs. In this case, Dodik could use this to speed up the situation and call a referendum for the secession of the Republic of Srpska.