“The worst is yet to come. French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian did not hide his concern on the eighth day of the war in Ukraine, Thursday, March 3. For the first time, the Russian army took control of the large Ukrainian city of Kherson and smashed several others, including the capital Kyiv and the country’s second city, Kharkiv. “We may fear the logic of a siege,” France’s French foreign minister warned, calling for a “ceasefire.”
>> War in Ukraine: follow the latest information in our lives
On the Russian side, Vladimir Putin reiterated his intention to continue “without compromise” his offensive against “nationalists” in Ukraine, while Russian-Ukrainian talks were to resume on Thursday afternoon on the Polish-Belarusian border. After a week of fighting, what is the state of balance of power? What are the prospects? Franceinfo interviewed Jean-Sylvester Montgrenier, an associate researcher at the Thomas More Institute and a specialist in security in Europe.
Franceinfo: Jean-Yves Le Drian says he fears a “logic of siege” by the Russian army. How to define this strategy?
Jean-Sylvester Montgrenier: So far, Russia has been in a Blitzkrieg strategy, a war of the movement. The Russian military believed that the Ukrainian state would quickly collapse with the crossroads of its army marching north to Kyiv, the deployment of Special Forces (Russian infiltrated special forces) and strikes on Ukraine’s military and economic capabilities. In the end, Ukrainian forces proved more resilient.
The Russian army is now considering the siege of a number of cities: Kyiv, Kharkov, Mariupol. If the capital falls into the hands of the Russians, the entire military-political leadership of Ukraine will collapse. The chain of command will fall apart and Ukraine could become a battlefield with armed civilian riots against Russian forces. Then we can imagine that the conflict is sinking and turning into a positional war, as was the case in Syria, in Aleppo.
After a week of war, what is the state of balance of forces and hostilities?
The overall balance of power is in Russia’s favor, but the war began only eight days ago. The Ukrainian army is more persistent than it seems Russia has acted against Russian lines of communication. Despite the bombing, the Ukrainian air force was not completely eliminated. There also appears to have been a problem with coordination between the Russian Air Force and the Russian military, which may explain the slowness of the convoy of military tanks heading for Kyiv.
But if in the north the Russian army seems to have more difficulty advancing, in the south it is advancing. The Russian military is going to the land bridge between Donbass and Crimea, the city of Mariupol is under siege and may go to Odessa, then to Moldova.
“The difficulties faced by the Russian army in the north should not overshadow progress in the south.”
Jean-Sylvester Montgrenier, European Security Specialist
in franceinfo
If the Russian military is on Moldova’s doorstep, it could resume the frozen conflict in Transnistria, which Moscow has used as a lever for years to prevent Moldova from turning west. Beyond it is the entire Black Sea basin, Georgia and the South Caucasus.
In addition, Russia still has military reserves. Vladimir Putin has reached an agreement with China to withdraw his troops from Siberia and redeploy them to Ukraine. It is currently estimated that there are 150 combined combat groups on the ground, which include cars, battalions, mechanized infantry, artillery and 500 combat aircraft. But according to the Pentagon, only 75 are active.
What could happen if Russia invades a NATO member state?
This will no longer be a single war, but the beginning of a great war between Russia and the West. With the game of alliances, we would change the scale. The United States will join. Most countries in the European Union too. Today, Westerners can no longer pretend to declare that there is simply a problem with dialogue with Russia. This is the end of a world.
“If the Russian army takes control of Ukraine, we can no longer stop it. Or, yes, but at what cost? What is happening in Ukraine is crucial for the West.”
Jean-Sylvester Montgrenier
in franceinfo
I’m not sure the conversations are changing anything. The Russians insist on the capitulation of the Ukrainian army, Ukraine to relinquish its sovereignty, which is unacceptable to Ukrainians. If the latter are considered strong enough to stay in war, I do not see why any of the countries should give up. A local and temporary ceasefire may be agreed, but the decision does not seem obvious militarily. The war would subside over time.