Kiev claims an advance in the Robotyne area, the result of weeks of attacks. Now a new test awaits them in a theater that remains complex. In fact, some observers are extending their analyzes into next winter and even beyond.
Having opened a gap, the Ukrainians approach the second line of defense. Satellite photos and experts have pointed to numerous fortifications, trench networks, dragon’s teeth areas and mines. On paper, it’s a sturdy device. However, General Oleksandr Tarnavskiy revealed a detail: the invaders stationed 60% of their forces on the former and would now have fewer resources. In fact, several sources report the transfer of reinforcements from other sectors and from Russia itself in order to prevent further advances. However, these are “remote” assessments; it is unclear how many Russian soldiers are actually deployed and how many units are actually involved. There was often talk of a lack of men, of undermanned battalions, of hastily regenerated units. However, the device developed by the deposed general Surovikin demanded a high price, which Volodymyr Zelensky indirectly acknowledges: The costs don’t matter, all that matters is progress.
On the eve of the offensive, leading voices warned that the window of opportunity for resistance was not large and would close within a few months. Today the outlook appears to have changed, and not just because the invaders have proven their persistence. As fall approaches, weather conditions will impact movements, troop conditions and air activity. However, in the Financial Times they pointed out possible differences in the terrain: in the east it becomes much muddier – making the now famous Rasputitsa an additional obstacle for the attackers – while in the southern areas it has greater absorption capacity.
For both candidates the question arises about the ammunition for the cannons. Russia produces and imports it from friendly countries (North Korea, Iran, Myanmar, others we do not know), Ukraine will do the same with local industries, but will also rely on supplies from NATO, which, according to estimates, is capable of this Deliveries will only increase in the first half of 2024. All of this leads us to look further and further into the future on the calendar, unless there is a diplomatic initiative that puts an end to the carnage.
Former Australian general Mick Ryan outlined three strategic objectives for Ukraine: achieve results and send a positive signal; maintaining the war initiative through its own maneuvers and through the constant flow of Western aid; Ensuring acceptable living conditions for the population in winter, when Moscow will intensify its bombing of infrastructure. Kiev’s engagement will be important, but the enemy must always be taken into account. Aiming to wear down its opponents even further, the army will rely on massive battlefield fire and ship cruises in the Black Sea. The Ukrainians will continue the war “in depth” through drones (including naval drones), new missiles and special operations.