Stay up to date with free updates
Simply sign up for myFT Digest for the US economy – straight to your inbox.
The U.S. economy is expected to have grown at its fastest pace in nearly two years in the third quarter, the latest sign of the country’s economic resilience amid high interest rates.
Strong consumer spending is likely to have led to a 4.3 percent annual increase in gross domestic product, according to economists surveyed by LSEG.
That would be an increase from the rate of 2.1 percent in the second quarter and the strongest value since the fourth quarter of 2021.
Preliminary numbers will be released by the Commerce Department on Thursday at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time.
The data comes as the Federal Reserve prepares for a meeting next week to decide on interest rates. The central bank is trying to bring inflation back toward its 2 percent target through higher interest rates without causing a drastic deterioration in the economy.
The GDP numbers are unlikely to have a drastic impact on next week’s decision because they are retrospective compared to monthly data such as inflation and payrolls.
The Fed is widely expected to keep interest rates at their highest level in 22 years to give policymakers more time to assess the impact of its previous rate hikes and recent events such as a sharp selloff in bond markets.
Still, the growth data will be another reminder of the economy’s longer-term strength and support expectations that interest rates will remain high for an extended period. Particularly sensitive to growth expectations are 10- and 30-year Treasuries with longer maturities, which have sold off dramatically in recent weeks.
Strong GDP overall numbers can also influence consumer and business sentiment, which can have a domino effect on behavior and inflation expectations.
Some sectors of the economy, particularly the real estate sector, were affected by the interest rate hike. Existing home sales fell at their slowest pace in 13 years in September due to rising mortgage rates.
However, consumer spending was much more robust than most economists had expected, and strong retail sales earlier this week helped the 10-year Treasury yield briefly climb to a 16-year high.