Niger is experiencing an explosive situation with unforeseeable consequences. Following the expiry of the ultimatum given to the coup leader by a group of neighboring countries led by Nigeria to return power to the democratic government and ahead of the summit that will bring these countries together on Thursday to decide how to proceed the United States its ultimatum participation in the conflict. According to Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Washington supports efforts to restore constitutional order after General Abdourahamane Tchiani’s coup and secure the return of President Mohamed Bazoum. The head of US diplomacy also warned of the role that could be played by the Russian paramilitary group Wagner, which already has a presence in other neighboring countries.
Washington is deeply concerned by events in Niger, a country of 25 million that plays a key role in the fight against Islamist extremist groups in the Sahel. The United States maintains a military base of 1,000 soldiers in this country specifically to counteract these radical organizations. Under the pro-Western bazoum, Niamey had become a stronghold in the fight against this terrorism and an oasis of relative stability in a highly unstable region where hostility towards the West runs high – particularly the United States and France, the former colonial power – during sympathy for Russia is growing.
There are fears that Niger will follow the path of Mali and Burkina Faso, two countries in the region currently ruled by military juntas hostile to the West. Both countries have already sent delegations to Niamey. Adding to this fear is the very real possibility that the Wagner Group, which is very present in Africa, will take advantage of the post-coup uncertainty to establish itself in the country and gain influence for itself and Moscow in a region so unstable it is strategic. Some reports suggest that the Nigerian military junta may have already asked the organization for help. Wagner’s leader Yevgeny Prigozhin asked the junta’s military in a voice message on the social network Telegram to call him “by phone”.
Washington has sent acting number two at the State Department, Victoria Nuland, to Niamey, the capital of Niger, to try to meet with the leaders of the coup carried out two weeks ago. So far without success. The diplomat was received only by Defense Minister General Moussa Barmou and was unable to see Tchiani, the former chief of the constitutional president’s bodyguards who became the leader of the coup.
“Diplomacy is of course the preferred way to resolve this situation,” Blinken said in an interview with Radio France International. “It is the current position of Cedeao [la Comunidad Económica de Estados de África Occidental]. It’s our position. In any case, we support the efforts of ECOWAS to restore constitutional order.”
Nigeria-led ECOWAS is trying to open a dialogue to reverse the coup. But he has also warned that he does not rule out the use of force to restore power to Bazoum, who is now being held by the junta. The organization is expected to make a decision at the emergency meeting called for Thursday.
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Tchiani ignored the requests and began appointing ministers to form a new government. Ali Mahamane Lamine Zeine, former economic chief, has been appointed prime minister. In addition, the country’s new officials on Tuesday refused entry to a tripartite delegation made up of representatives from ECOWAS, the African Union and the United Nations, who were due to arrive in Niamey for a meeting with the military.
“I am in close contact with President Bazoum, with many leaders in Africa, and we are all working towards the same goal: restoring constitutional order,” the US Secretary of State said in statements to Qatari television channel Al Jazeera. .
Washington is watching what the Wagner paramilitary group, already present in Mali, can do. According to Blinken, the mercenary organization is already trying to “exploit” instability in Niger.
“I think what happened and continues to happen in Niger was not instigated by Russia or Wagner, but… they tried to take advantage of it,” the head of US diplomacy said in statements to the BBC. Blinken warned of the consequences of opening the door to Russian mercenaries in Niger. “Every time this Wagner group entered a place, the result was death, destruction and exploitation… the insecurity has increased, not decreased.”
Blinken’s warnings are in addition to those Bazoum himself issued last week. “With an invitation from the coup plotters and their regional allies, the entire central Sahel could be brought under Russian influence through the Wagner group, whose brutal terrorism in Ukraine has been fully exposed,” the president wrote on a lectern in The Washington Post.
“Extremely Difficult” Conversations
From Niamey, Nuland has assured the media in statements that the military junta understands the implications of providing facilities for the Russian mercenary group. The deputy secretary of state has acknowledged that her talks with Nigerian military chiefs have been “extraordinarily difficult” because she has not yet been confirmed by the US Congress.
Tchani was unwilling to hold a meeting with her. Nuland had to resign himself to delivering his message to Barmou, the military chief: that Niger will lose hundreds of millions of dollars in US aid unless constitutional order is restored. Washington has already canceled the delivery of $100 million in development and security aid after the coup. “We have made absolutely clear what is at stake in our relationship and that if democracy is not restored we must by law cut economic and other support,” said Blinken’s number two.
So far, the leaders of the coup have failed to listen to these claims. “I’m quite a firm believer in how they want to proceed and that’s not in line with Niger’s constitution,” he added.
The EU still sees “room for mediation” until Thursday.
Silvia Ayuso (Brussels)
The European Union assumes that there is still “room for mediation” in Niger before the special session of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) on Thursday to decide on the next steps to restore democratic order in the country after the ultimatum expires on Sunday. Still, said the Community’s foreign affairs spokesman, Peter Stano, Europe has so far supported ECOWAS in its decisions and will continue to do so, regardless of what it decides at Thursday’s crucial meeting in Abuja.
Even if “there is still room for mediation” in the next few hours, ECOWAS is “the leading body in this situation”. The EU’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs, Josep Borrell, has expressed “very clearly” his “firm support” for the organization in the face of the military coup and their efforts to “seek a solution” and “restore democracy”. , Stano explained at a press conference in Brussels. Support that, he stressed, continues ahead of Thursday’s meeting of African countries in the Nigerian capital, where the possibility of military action against the coup leaders will be analyzed.
The spokesman reminded that the EU had been in close contact with African officials and the international community in recent days to discuss the situation after the military coup. Because what is happening in Niger is an issue that affects not only the country, but security “in the entire region,” he emphasized. He therefore pointed to the “firmness” of the European position, which had suspended all cooperation and programs with Niger for the time being.
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