The United States is headed for another war in the Middle East. The conflict between Israel and Hamas is rapidly escalating across the region and threatens to draw the United States directly into the conflict.
The recent ballistic missile and drone fire fired at Israel by Yemen’s Houthi movement – coupled with the group’s statement that such attacks will continue – and the ongoing attacks on US positions in the region show this Conflict expands quickly. The United States is now on a new war footing with Iran and its regional partners, which many in Congress see as part of a new “axis of evil” that includes Russia and China.
The Biden administration is preparing for such a scenario, but Washington is not taking adequate measures to prevent such a disaster from occurring. Fears among the American public that the United States will be drawn into another war in the Middle East are growing rapidly: According to a recent Quinnipiac poll, 84% of respondents were either “very” or “somewhat” worried that the U.S could be drawn into war conflict.
President Biden and his team have repeatedly warned Israel against making the same “mistakes” as the United States did after September 11, 2001, but it appears that Washington has not yet learned from our own mistakes of the last two decades.
If the government does not want to start another war in the Middle East, it must prevent the conflict from attracting additional actors from across the region. The way the war is currently being fought seems to make this outcome more likely rather than less likely.
After Hamas’ terrorist attack on Israel on October 7, the United States significantly increased its military presence in the Middle East in hopes of averting a major regional conflict. The United States deployed two aircraft carrier strike groups of around 7,500 men each, two guided-missile destroyers and nine air squadrons to the eastern Mediterranean and Red Sea region. Washington also deployed an additional 4,000 troops to the region, with another 2,000 on standby, adding to the approximately 30,000 troops already in the region.
This buildup comes as the conflict escalates significantly. Over 1,500 Israelis and more than 9,770 Palestinians have died as a result of the war. The situation in the Gaza Strip is serious: over a million people are displaced and thousands are in urgent need of humanitarian assistance. Violence also escalated in the West Bank, with an estimated 152 Palestinians killed by Israeli settlers and soldiers since the war began, ending in the United States vocation calls for Israel to “protect Palestinians from violence by Israeli extremist settlers.”
Outside of the war itself, violence is increasing across the region. U.S. forces in the Middle East have been attacked by Iran-linked groups in Iraq and Syria at least 23 times. In response, US forces carried out airstrikes on two Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) facilities in Syria, while announcing further retaliation if attacks on US personnel continued. Israel and Hezbollah continue to clash, with nearly 50 Hezbollah fighters killed since October 7.
Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah gave his first public address since the start of the war on Friday, November 3, in which he emphasized Hamas’s independent decision-making in its attack on Israel while urging an end to the conflict, claiming that a War remains possible throughout the region. Nasrallah also praised the Houthis in Yemen for their commitment. Following recent ballistic missile and drone fire, the Houthis have targeted Israel three times since the war began. Even after the war broke out in Gaza, Israel continued to carry out attacks on Iranian-backed militias in Syria.
The Biden administration must confront the fact that a broader war in the Middle East would be ruinous for the United States and the region.
Given the relative military weakness of America’s regional partners – with the exception of Israel, which would still be overwhelmed in such a scenario – the United States would have to do the lion’s share of the fighting and bear the bulk of the costs. Such a war would result in dramatically new levels of U.S. commitments and entanglements in the region at a time when the Middle East is no longer a central theater of American interests.
The risk of a major war in the Middle East comes as the United States is already busy supporting Ukraine against Russia’s invasion and deterring China in the Indo-Pacific, all while carrying a national debt of over $33 trillion and a trillion US dollars. plus budget deficits every year in peacetime. Opening a new front in the Middle East and attempting to pursue Washington’s stated interests in Europe and the Indo-Pacific risks plunging America into an economic crisis.
It goes without saying that such a war would be disastrous for the Middle East itself, destabilizing the region politically, economically and militarily. The war would empower illiberal actors across the region at the expense of real stability. The enormous human and material costs would burden the Middle East for generations to come.
It should be clear from the last few decades that the use of money, weapons and military equipment in the region often has profound negative consequences. In this case, Washington risks further escalation and even direct US involvement in a war across the region.
Biden must make clear that the U.S.’s core interest is to stay out of the revolving door of conflict in the Middle East and not be drawn into a ruinous military operation across the region.
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