Taiwanese military participate in an amphibious assault during military exercises in Pingtung, Taiwan, July 28, 2022. (Lam Yik Fei/The New York Times)
WASHINGTON — American officials are stepping up efforts to build up a huge stockpile of weapons in Taiwan after studying the Chinese military’s recent naval and air force drills across the island, according to current and former officials.
The exercises showed that China would likely blockade the island as a prelude to any attempted invasion, and Taiwan would have to hold out on its own until the United States or other nations decide to intervene, current and former officials say.
But efforts to turn Taiwan into a weapons depot face challenges. The United States and its allies have prioritized shipping arms to Ukraine, reducing those countries’ inventories, and arms manufacturers are reluctant to open new production lines without a steady stream of long-term orders.
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And it’s unclear how China might react if the United States accelerates arms shipments to Taiwan, a democratic, self-governing island that Beijing believes is Chinese territory.
US officials determine the amount and type of weapons sold to Taiwan, quietly telling Taiwanese officials and American weapons manufacturers that they will turn down orders for some large systems in favor of larger numbers of smaller, more mobile weapons. The Biden administration announced Sept. 2 that it had approved its sixth weapons package for Taiwan — a $1.1 billion sale that includes 60 Harpoon coastal defense missiles. US officials are also discussing how to streamline the sales and delivery process.
President Joe Biden said last month that the United States “does not promote Taiwan’s independence,” adding, “That is its decision.” Since 1979, Washington’s policy has been to reassure Beijing that it does not support independence. But China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi said in a speech to the Asia Society last month that the United States is undermining that position “through repeated official exchanges and arms sales, including many offensive weapons.”
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The People’s Liberation Army of China conducted exercises involving naval vessels and warplanes in areas near Taiwan in August. It also fired ballistic missiles into the waters off Taiwan’s coast, four of which, according to Japan, flew over the island.
The Chinese military acted after House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan. But even before that, US and Taiwanese officials had been scrutinizing the potential for an invasion because Russia’s attack on Ukraine made the possibility seem more real, although Chinese leaders have not given an explicit timeline for establishing rule over Taiwan.
The United States would not be able to resupply Taiwan as easily as Ukraine does due to the lack of ground routes from neighboring countries. The goal now, officials say, is to ensure Taiwan has enough weapons to defend itself until help arrives. Biden said last month that US troops would defend Taiwan if China mounted an “unprecedented attack” on the island – the fourth time he has said that commitment and a shift from a US preference for “strategic ambiguity” towards Taiwan -President has declared.
“Taiwan stockpiling is a very active talking point,” said Jacob Stokes, a staffer at the Center for a New American Security who advised Biden as vice president on Asia policy. “And if you have it, how do you harden it and how do you disperse it so Chinese missiles can’t destroy it?”
“The view is that we need to extend the length of time Taiwan can hold out on its own,” he added. “This is how you avoid China picking the low-hanging fruit of its ‘fait accompli’ strategy – that they won a day before we arrived, assuming we intervene.”
US officials are increasingly emphasizing Taiwan’s need for smaller, mobile weapons that can be deadly against Chinese warships and jets while also being able to evade attacks, which is central to so-called asymmetric warfare.
Shoot-and-scoot weapon types are popular with the Ukrainian military, which has used Javelin and NLAW shoulder-fired anti-tank guided missiles and Stinger anti-aircraft missiles effectively against Russian forces. Recently, Ukrainians bludgeoned Russian troops with mobile American-made rocket launchers known as HIMARS.
To turn Taiwan into a “porcupine,” a weapon-packed unit that would be costly to attack, US officials have tried to get Taiwanese counterparts to order more of these weapons and fewer conventional ground warfare systems such as M1 Abrams tanks .
Pentagon and State Department officials have also been speaking regularly with American defense contractors on these issues since March, including at an industry conference on Taiwan this week in Richmond, Virginia. Jedidiah Royal, a Defense Department official, said in a speech that the Pentagon is helping Taiwan build systems for “an island defense against an aggressor with conventional superiority.”
In a recent article, James Timbie, a former State Department official, and James O. Ellis Jr., a retired US Navy admiral, said that Taiwan needs “a great number of little things” for a distributed defense, and that some of Taiwan’s recent purchases from the United States, including Harpoon and Stinger missiles, fit that bill. Taiwan also produces its own deterrent weapons, including minelayer ships, anti-aircraft missile systems and anti-ship cruise missiles.
They said Taiwan needs to shift resources away from “expensive, high-profile conventional systems” that China could easily destroy in an initial attack, although some of those systems, particularly F-16 jets, are useful in countering ongoing Chinese fighter jets and naval activities in airspace and waters of the “grey zone”. The authors also wrote that “Taiwan’s effective defense” will require stockpiling of ammunition, fuel and other supplies, as well as strategic energy and food reserves.
Officials in the administration of Tsai Ing-wen, the President of Taiwan, say they recognize the need to stockpile smaller weapons but note there are significant delays between orders and shipments.
“I think we are moving with a high degree of consensus on our priorities regarding the asymmetric strategy, but the pace needs to be accelerated,” Bi-khim Hsiao, Taiwan’s de facto ambassador to Washington, said in an interview .
Some American lawmakers have called for faster and more robust deliveries. Some senior senators are trying to push through the proposed Taiwan Policy Act, which would provide Taiwan with $6.5 billion in security aid over the next four years and mandate that the island be treated as if it were a “major non-NATO.” -ally”.
But Jens Stoltenberg, secretary-general of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, said in an interview that arms manufacturers want to see predictability in orders before committing to ramping up production. Defense directors from the United States and more than 40 other nations met in Brussels last week to discuss long-term supply and production issues.
If China decides to establish a naval blockade around Taiwan, American officials would likely consider which route of supplies to Taiwan — sea or air — offers the least likelihood of putting Chinese and US ships, planes and submarines in direct conflict bring to.
One proposal would be to send US cargo planes to Taiwan’s east coast with supplies from bases in Japan and Guam. That way, any Chinese fighter jets trying to shoot them down would have to fly over Taiwan and risk being shot down by Taiwanese fighter jets.
“The sheer volume of materiel that would likely be required in the event of war is tremendous, and it would be difficult to get through, although it would be feasible,” said Eric Wertheim, defense adviser and author of The Naval Institute Guide to Combat Fleets. “The question is: How much risk are China and the White House willing to take to impose or break a blockade, and can it be sustained?”
China was likely investigating the strategic failure of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, he said, and the United States should continue to send weapons to Taiwan that would make either an amphibious invasion or a long-range weapon attack much more difficult for China.
“The Chinese naval officers I’ve spoken to over the past few years have said that they fear the humiliation that would result from any type of failure, and this of course means they are less likely to take action when an increased level of failure occurs There is a risk of failure,” said Wertheim. “Essentially, the success of the Ukrainians is a message to the Chinese.”
Biden administration officials are trying to gauge what moves would deter China without actually provoking major military action.
Jessica Chen Weiss, a professor of government at Cornell University who worked on China policy at the State Department for the past year, wrote on Twitter that Biden’s recent comments about committing US troops to defend Taiwan are “dangerous.” She said in an interview that pursuing the porcupines’ strategy enhances deterrence, but the company has not taken what she sees as symbolic steps related to Taiwan’s diplomatic status.
“The US needs to make it clear that the US has no strategic interest in Taiwan being permanently separated from mainland China,” she said.
But other former US officials have hailed Biden’s forceful remarks, saying greater “strategic clarity” strengthens deterrence.
“President Biden has said four times now that we would defend Taiwan, but every time he says it, someone retaliates,” said Harry B. Harris Jr., a retired admiral who served as commander of U.S. Pacific Command and Ambassador to South Korea served. “And I think that makes us look weak as a nation because who runs this show? I mean is it the president or is it his advisors?
“So maybe we should take him at his word,” Harris added. “Maybe he’s serious about defending Taiwan.”
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