Russian President Vladimir Putin celebrates Defender of the Fatherland Day in 2015 in central Moscow, Russia with military officials surrounding him.
Sasha Mordovets | News from Getty Images | Getty Images
WASHINGTON — The Biden administration warned Monday that Russian forces are likely to step up military operations in Ukraine after weeks of stalled ground advances.
“When Russia started this war, its initial goal was to capture the capital, Kyiv, replace the Zelenskyi government, and take control of much, if not all, of Ukraine,” National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan told reporters in the White House, adding: “Russia believed it could achieve these goals quickly and efficiently.”
He said US officials believe the Kremlin is now revising its war aim. “Russia is repositioning its forces to focus its offensive operations on eastern and parts of southern Ukraine, rather than targeting most of the territory,” Sullivan said, citing the military’s failure to capture Kyiv.
Over the past five weeks, Russian ground forces in Ukraine have faced a series of battlefield logistical problems, including reports of fuel and food shortages.
“Everything indicates that Russia will try to surround and overwhelm Ukrainian forces in eastern Ukraine,” Sullivan said. “We assume that Russian commanders are now carrying out the transfer from northern Ukraine to the region around the Donbass.”
He added that Russia’s renewed ground offensive in eastern Ukraine is also likely to “involve air and missile strikes in the rest of the country to cause military and economic damage and, frankly, incite terror.”
FILE PHOTO: An aerial view shows a residential building destroyed by shelling during the Russian invasion of Ukraine, in the settlement of Borodyanka in the Kyiv region, Ukraine, March 3, 2022. Image captured by a drone.
Maxim Levin | Reuters
A senior US Defense Department official, who spoke on condition of anonymity to share details of the Pentagon’s thinking, said the Kremlin has moved about 65% of its forces near Kyiv to Belarus.
The official said the Pentagon believes these Russian troops would be provided with additional manpower in Belarus before being deployed again to fight in Ukraine. When asked where the troops were likely to go, the official said the Pentagon believes the majority of them will move to the Donbass region.
The official added the US believes the “vast majority” of Russian forces are still in Ukraine and that Kyiv is still under threat.
Later Monday, Pentagon spokesman John Kirby gave no indication as to how the US expects a reorganization of Russia’s armed forces.
“We do not believe this is a complete withdrawal from the war effort. These guys aren’t going home, I think that’s the main point,” Kirby said, adding that the Pentagon “hasn’t been able to predict exactly how they’re going to reform their units.”
When pressed, Sullivan did not provide a timeline of how long the US expected the war to last.
“It might not just be a matter of a few weeks,” Sullivan said. “This next phase could be measured in months or more,” he added.