Sunday’s election comes with more uncertainty than many expected. The latest prediction I’m allowed to release based on Monday’s polls says the most likely outcome is a majority for PP and Vox, but it only gives them a 55 percent chance of falling between the two. In almost half of the cases, the result will be different.
Surprises are always possible: although polls predict better than any other alternative, history reminds us that this is an approximation exercise. Thanks to them we know some things with great certainty, for example that PP and PSOE will be ahead of Vox and Sumar or that the popular parties have little chance of getting an absolute majority. But there is no need to hope that the surveys are accurate and give answers to unknowns on which 3% of Spaniards, like the majority of 23-year-olds, depend: they don’t know that much. This is more evident in this election, as we had daily polls from multiple pollsters who, while not really far apart, did not agree on the most likely outcome. For some it is the blockade and for others the majority of the right.
The key is to remember that mistakes of 10 seats in a party are common. That’s why I express my predictions in terms of probabilities. And that’s why I’m writing about possible surprises this Saturday, hours before the election.
Scenario 1: a government of the left
According to the polls, PP and Vox together hold 47% of the vote, four or five points ahead of PSOE and Sumar (41%-42%). But what if the polls make a serious mistake – but not a rare one – and the reality surprises the left? If three points were moved, there would be an almost equal vote in both blocs and the seat result would be similar to 2019. In other words, the likely majority in this scenario would be an inauguration by Pedro Sánchez, who would only need the support of BNG, PNV, ERC and Bildu.
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This reversal that the left needs can happen in two ways: by tendency or by mistake. When the polls came out on Monday, the momentum was with an increase in the total of PSOE and Sumar and it could have continued since. The other possibility is that the polls have been overestimating right wing voters for weeks and that’s what we see at 23-J.
According to my calculations, and taking into account the typical error of polls in Spain, there is a 16% chance that they will be as wrong as the left needs to be. As easy (or hard) as rolling a die and getting a six.
Scenario 2: the blockade
The second surprise is a variant of the previous one: Reality surprises on the left, but only by a point or two. It’s a scenario that leads to complicated arithmetic. Maybe for a redial?
If the PP and Vox win two or three points ahead of the PSOE and Sumar instead of five, the PP’s governing options will be complicated. It will not be easy for the popular parties to gain 176 seats with Santiago Abascal’s party, and they would not even convince the Canary Islands coalition to invest. You would have to look for the PNV, which doesn’t seem willing to do this at all.
But even the PSOE would not find it easy to win the inauguration. It wouldn’t be worth repeating his endorsement from 2019 but he would certainly need the votes of the Junts and maybe the CUP too. These two parties could have the key. The probability that such crash scenarios will occur is about 20% (one in five cases).
Scenario 3: a strong PP
The surprise on Sunday could also come from the right. For example, the PP could be more successful in every respect if it gets more votes from Vox and this is also accompanied by a less mobilized left than the polls currently show. However, even in such a case, it is difficult for the mainstream parties to gain an absolute majority.
In this simulation, I have assumed that the right is 1.5 points ahead of the left – which would mean a very good result for the former – and that the PP will also gain a few points to the detriment of Vox to around 37.5% of the vote. In such a scenario, mainstream parties rise to 157 seats and reduce Vox to 27, but they are still far from an absolute majority and it would not be easy for them to secure an inauguration without the extreme right.
4. Let there be no surprises
The final surprise would be that the outcome is exactly what seems most likely. As I said at the beginning, PP and Vox average around 177 seats in my poll, with a narrow but sufficient majority to govern.
The most normal thing is for Sunday’s result to look like this distribution… but since the PP and Vox majority are so close and the polls often make mistakes of up to a dozen seats for some parties, this central scenario is pretty tight. More than usual. It’s easy for reality to fall into scenario two or three.
The truth is that elections usually have unforeseen events. And what’s entirely predictable explains the typical pitfall of the wrong forecaster: it’s safe to say that “someone’s going to be surprised” on Sunday, because that’s easy to predict. The hard part is guessing which one.
Methodology. Our calculation of seats is based on a three-step process: 1) we use the average of national polls; 2) We estimate the number of votes in each constituency using this average and 3) we calculate the seats using the D’Hondt method. You can read more about the methodology here.
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