A political rally ahead of the first round of the French presidential election.
Sylvain Lefevre | News from Getty Images | Getty Images
French voters head to an election on Sunday where the cost of living and the war in Ukraine dominated the political debate.
Opinion polls from the week leading up to the first round of the presidential election showed a narrowing gap between incumbent President Emmanuel Macron and far-right party leader Marine Le Pen, who is running for the third time. The two are set to contest the second and final round of voting on April 24th.
Support for Macron rose sharply after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The French President has tried to broker diplomatic deals between Kyiv and Moscow and called for a ceasefire, while urging the EU to crack down on the Kremlin over its unprovoked invasion of Ukraine.
Last week, for example, Macron said it was time for the EU to ban Russian coal and oil after atrocities erupted in towns near the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv. The bloc then implemented measures against Russian coal and began work on restricting Russian oil.
But the war in Ukraine has contributed to higher energy prices, as well as a broader rise in inflation – something his opponent Marine Le Pen exploited in her election campaign.
Le Pen has focused heavily on the cost of living as she seeks to distance herself from her ties to Russian President Vladimir Putin. Her campaign staff have denied reports that they were ordered to destroy thousands of leaflets containing a photo of Le Pen with Putin.
“Macron remains in pole position to win on April 24th. However, his initial surge in odds following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has evaporated as Le Pen has capitalized on fears about rising cost of living. Based on current trends, Macron and Le Pen could be neck-and-neck before the election,” Berenberg analysts said in a note to clients on Wednesday.
Le Pen has also abandoned some of her other political positions in an attempt to attract more moderate voters. For example, she is no longer pushing for France to leave the European Union.
Also, new presidential candidate Eric Zemmour—because he’s even more right-wing—has helped soften their image. Zemmour also takes a hard line on immigration and has focused his political rhetoric on this issue.
“Zemmour’s offer means there is a more radical candidate on the far right of the spectrum. This could help Le Pen’s efforts to ‘normalize’ her figure and make her more digestible as a candidate for some sections of centre-right voters,” Antonio Barroso, chief executive of consultancy Teneo, said in a note on Tuesday.
“Indeed, her much more professional campaign than 2017 is marked by constant efforts to make her look less aggressive than in the past,” he added of Le Pen.
Yields on the 10-year French government bond have risen since the start of the year amid mounting economic concerns amid higher inflation. The benchmark also rose last week as opinion polls showed the gap between Macron and Le Pen narrowing.