DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) – Russia’s war in Ukraine could spell change for Ed Kessel’s farm in a quiet stretch of western North Dakota.
Global farmers, like Kessel, are considering changing their planting patterns and planting more wheat this spring as war has stifled or threatened grain supplies from a region known as “the world’s breadbasket.”
Ukraine and Russia account for a third of global wheat and barley exports, which countries in the Middle East, Asia and Africa depend on to feed millions of people who live on subsidized bread and bargain noodles. They are also top exporters of other grains and sunflower oil used in cooking and food processing.
Kessel said he could plant more wheat and ride the tide of high prices, which have risen by a third since the invasion to offset losses from drought and rising fuel costs, but not much more.
“Honestly, planting a few more acres of wheat will probably help us. We’re going to plant a few more acres of wheat and a few more sunflowers,” said Kessel, also first vice president of the North Dakota Grain Growers Association.
Big grain producers like the United States, Canada, France, Australia and Argentina are being closely watched to see if they can quickly ramp up production to fill the gaps caused by lost Ukrainian and Russian supplies. But farmers face the prospect of another year of drought, rising fuel and fertilizer costs and supply chain disruptions from the COVID-19 pandemic. Large producers are also paralyzed by factors such as government export restrictions and farming patterns.
That means uncertainty for countries like Egypt, Lebanon, Pakistan, Iran, Ethiopia and others that cannot grow enough wheat, barley, corn or other grains to meet their needs. The war has raised the specter of food shortages and political instability in countries dependent on affordable grain imports.
Any additional grain exports from around the world “are likely to only partially offset lower Black Sea shipments in the remainder of the current season,” the International Grains Council said in its March report.
About half of the grain the World Food Program buys to feed 125 million people worldwide comes from Ukraine. The double whammy of soaring food prices and depressed wheat exports from the war is a recipe for “disaster not just in Ukraine but potentially worldwide,” the UN food agency chief warned.
“It’s going to affect millions and millions of people, especially in the world’s poorest countries,” WFP Executive Director David Beasley told The Associated Press in the western Ukrainian city of Lviv last week while visiting a refugee center where food aid was being distributed.
There are unanswered questions about how Western sanctions against Russia, the world’s largest wheat exporter, could affect its grain exports and distribution networks. Russia is also the top fertilizer exporter, while Ukraine ships huge quantities of corn, rye, oats and millet. The Black Sea region is a top producer of grain used as fodder for cattle around the world.
Australia and India have responded by increasing grain exports, but there is little room for others to do so immediately. That’s largely due to the recurring drought, said Arnaud Petit, executive director of the International Grains Council.
The US produced around 44 million tons of wheat for the 2021-2022 season. Just two to three years ago it was over 50 million tons. Petit pointed to the drought and farmers’ shift to more profitable crops.
Canada, Argentina and Australia may be looking to ramp up wheat production for the upcoming season, which ends in mid-2023, but it’s too early to tell if farmers are changing their cropping patterns to focus more on crops like wheat .
Doug Martin said it was too late for his family farm in Manitoba, Canada, to make any significant changes to what is now being planted. Also, growing a variety of crops spreads the risks.
“Most producers have a fixed idea of what they’re sowing and will likely stick to that,” Martin said.
Although higher wheat prices will bring profits to farmers, this is not a sufficient incentive to expand production as prices for crops such as oats, canola and barley are also rising.
“There are other plants that will produce good yields,” Martin added.
Every increase in production is offset by rising supply costs. Fuel prices have skyrocketed and fertilizer costs have already been high due to the severe shortage of natural gas in Europe.
“With cheaper fertilizers, it would have been possible to pull us out of a global food security problem – possibly – but nutrients are far from affordable or even accessible right now,” said Sylvain Charlebois, professor of food distribution and policy at Dalhousie University in Canada.
Philippe Dutertre grows wheat in Chemiré-le-Gaudin, in the agricultural region of Sarthe, about 210 kilometers southwest of Paris. He hasn’t decided yet whether to expand his wheat field given rising energy and electricity costs.
“We may be able to influence crop rotation a bit, but today France produces wheat, corn, oilseed rape and other grains,” he said. “We no longer have the certainty to say that tomorrow we can guarantee the food security of France and Europe.”
Australian farmers enjoyed a bountiful wheat season. Still, the Department of Agriculture says Australia won’t be able to respond immediately to lower Ukrainian supplies as it already sold its exports by September.
The situation is similar in Argentina, another major grain exporter. A whopping 95% of the current wheat harvest has already been sold.
Jorge Josifovich owns farmland in Pergamino, one of Argentina’s richest agricultural areas, where he grows wheat, corn and soybeans. Despite higher wheat prices, Argentinian farmers may not be motivated to plant more because of high fertilizer and fuel costs coupled with “tight price controls imposed by the government that are unfavorable to growers selling their production to exporters.”
The calculus leaves the world’s largest wheat importers vulnerable, including Indonesia, Egypt, Pakistan and Bangladesh, as well as war-torn Yemen and cash-strapped Lebanon. They are countries with vast populations in poverty who depend on affordable wheat for their sustenance.
The Middle East’s drought is at its highest in at least 20 years, according to the Gro Drought Index, hampering efforts to boost domestic wheat production.
There is potential for unrest if prices continue to rise, particularly in countries without adequate wheat stocks. They may be forced to wait to buy from the market, switch to rice, or draw from their wheat reserves.
In Egypt, the world’s largest wheat importer, the government recently announced price caps on unsubsidized bread and penalties for violators in response to rising prices.
The world has 278 million tons of wheat stocks to cushion deficits from Ukraine, said Petit of the International Grains Council. However, half of those stocks are in China, which has been stockpiling for more than a year to ensure food security for its 1.4 billion people.
Meanwhile, farmers around the world are making their own tough choices. Tom Bernhardt, who runs a fifth-generation grain and cattle farm near Linton, North Dakota, said no-till farmers like him wouldn’t deviate too much from their normal crop rotation and plant more wheat because it causes soil health problems can lead and weeds.
Also, there is no guarantee that wheat prices will stay high.
“I’ve never planted extra acres just to hunt for a price,” said the 61-year-old American farmer.
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Karnowski reported from St. Paul, Minnesota and Gillies from Toronto. Associated Press reporter Susie Blann in Lviv, Ukraine; Oleg Cetinic in Chemiré-le-Gaudin, France; Almudena Calatrava in Buenos Aires; and Rod McGuirk in Canberra, Australia contributed to this story.