As the hours tick by and the fear mounts, the Warriors’ only major concern on the eve of free choice is getting Draymond Green’s signature on the dotted line. Everything after that is garnish.
If Draymond signs, first-year general manager Mike Dunleavy and longtime coach Steve Kerr can be virtually certain of avoiding last season’s pesky roster turbulence.
From frequent injuries to excused absences, from stress management to sheer desperation, one of the dirty truths about the 2022-23 Warriors is that continuity was a rumor. Kerr fielded 25 different starting lineups during the regular season, five different lineups in 13 playoff games.
No serious contender relies on two-wayers getting significant minutes in crucial games, but that was the case with Anthony Lamb and Ty Jerome. Not because Kerr and his staff idolized them, but because they were desperate to fill gaps in the roster and these two had gained more trust among the veterans than their younger teammates.
If Kerr lost a few hairs and added a few worry lines, it could be because he spent 95 games spinning endless rotary roulette waves.
This has been addressed so carefully and quickly that, assuming Draymond’s involvement, next season’s rotation is pretty much set three months before camp: Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson in guard, Andrew Wiggins and Green in forward, Kevon Looney in the middle .
In addition, the bench already boasts Chris Paul as a point guard, Gary Payton II as a defensive ace and utility man, Jonathan Kuminga as a hyper-athletic winger, and Moses Moody as a basic guard/forward.
Golden State has a nine-man rotation before one of the rookies – who Dunleavy expects will both be in the 14-man roster – touches the ground.
First-round pick Brandin Podziemski projects as a shooter and second-round pick Trayce Jackson-Davis brings a defensive mentality and the ability to finish.
“I think our squad is in good shape,” Dunleavy said last week. “We don’t have to make too many decisions.”
Now understand that this was the new GM’s pre-draft assessment – and while he knew but didn’t acknowledge that dynamic defenseman Jordan Poole would be a valuable trade item.
So free agency is about filling in the boundaries. It’s about finding veterans with at least one discernible skill and getting them to sign a minimum contract. Sure, there’s always a chance, maybe a good chance, that one or two could oust one of the aforementioned nine players and crack the rotation.
But it’s highly unlikely the Warriors will do anything special in the face of a luxury tax bill that will push the payroll past $400 million. Unless that’s the case, negotiations with Draymond reach an irreconcilable limit.
Assuming that’s not the case, Kerr’s only concern will be managing his 30-something’s minutes and workload. Paul is 38, Curry is 35, Thompson and Green are both 33. Neither is likely to have more than 75 games, and Paul is predicting closer to 60.
Which points to the only planned caveat: mileage. With mileage/age comes regular maintenance and an increased risk of injury. dr Rick Celebrini, whose management of Otto Porter Jr. was nothing short of spectacular two seasons ago, will be just as valuable as any other player in the roster.
Celebrini’s story is enough to give the Warriors confidence in his process.
If Mike Dunleavy feels a little too comfortable for someone who was promoted 10 minutes ago, it’s because he’s confident of what the squad will be like with Draymond.
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He is also confident that in the unlikely event that Draymond goes elsewhere, CEO Joe Lacob will not stand by.
“There’s a lot that can be done with all the challenges that are coming our way, whether it’s the aging roster, the new CBA with some restrictions there, or anything else you can address,” Dunleavy said last week. “We are aware of all of these things.
“But we also feel like we’re in a great place because we have a competitive owner who’s willing to spend money, a group that’s integrated, has good synergies, good processes and good, informed decisions. We are confident that we can master it.”
Put simply, the Warriors can take one look at their current roster and know they only have one big goal in the coming days and that is to secure Draymond.
Do that and let the training camp separate those who will be in the rotation from those who will provide the bench decorations.
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