Who Destroyed the Kakhovka Dam, Located Downstream of the Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant in Ukraine? On social networks, a graphic showing the reservoir rising more than 3.5 m is interpreted as supporting opposing hypotheses, without this being concrete and sufficient evidence.
On Twitter, Megaupload founder Kim Dotcom estimated on June 6, in An entry Shared more than 7,500 times that “data suggests that shortly before the dam was destroyed, Ukraine artificially raised the water level in the reservoir to its highest level in eight years.” Evidence of guilt? “.
He then asks: Ukraine controlled the other dams upstream of the Dnieper, he argues, and by “raising the water level to its record level, the Zelensky regime wanted to cause maximum flooding after the dam was destroyed?” Aside from the fact that the With the Dnieper on the front line, Russian forces control the river’s left bank, which includes the Kakhovka Dam and hydroelectric power station, according to a diagram by the American Institute for War Studies (ISW). The same graph was later published to conversely claim that it was the Russians who held back the water before planning to destroy the dam.
A worrying drop in February
This graphic is real and comes from Theia, a French data center that uses satellites to monitor continental surfaces, including water levels, via the Hydroweb website. According to this data, the level of Lake Kachowka was 14.03 m on February 2, 2023, the lowest level since 1992 according to data from the US Department of Agriculture.
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This level drop, which is worrying if it continues, could also affect the cooling of the Zaporijie nuclear power plant some 140 km upstream. According to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), at least 12.7 meters are required for water to be pumped into the tank to cool the six reactors during shutdown. We’ll come back to that.
From February onwards there was a spectacular increase in the water level, which peaked at 17.54 m on May 21st. As of June 4th, data is no longer provided on Hydroweb. The National Center for Space Studies, a partner of the pole, declined to comment on the increase.
“The Ukrainian authorities have no access to the dam”
The contacted Iuliia Danylenko, head of the laboratory at the Ukrainian Institute of Hydraulic Problems and Spatial Planning, explains to us that the management of the 6 dams on the river is regulated by an official document, the Operational Rules of the Dnieper Reservoirs. These rules take into account the needs of the stakeholders (for hydropower, fisheries, industry, irrigation, etc.) and take into account the weather conditions of the year (dry, normal, wet) to regulate the levels in the tanks.
This winter and spring “the season has been very wet, there has been a lot of rain upstream, which means the reservoirs are probably full,” she explains. To prevent overflow, all dams must discharge water downstream into the Black Sea. But unlike the five other dams on the Dnieper that are still in Ukrainian hands, the Kakhovka dam “has been under full Russian control since February 24, 2022,” she continues. The Ukrainian authorities do not have access to it and have not been able to open or close the valves. The water level can rise if the dam operators do not follow the rules and open the required number of gates in time. The occupying forces are to ensure the normal functioning of the dam. She wonders, “Why weren’t the floodgates opened?” Was there a purpose? »
An insufficient “discharge rate”
In mid-May, the New York Times also questioned the rise of the lake, which, according to an analysis of satellite imagery, then reached worrying levels where water appeared to overflow from the top of the dam. “The reason for this significant increase is unclear,” the reporters wrote. David Helms, a former US Air Force meteorologist who researched the dam, said Russian forces appeared to have opened too few floodgates to control the flow caused by snowmelt and spring rains. “The river spills a lot of water [dans le réservoir] and that far exceeds the layoff rate,” he said daily.
Since June 6, Moscow and Kiev have denied responsibility for the destruction of the Kakhovka Dam, which heralds a humanitarian and ecological catastrophe. Russia was accused by Ukraine on Tuesday of blowing up the dam to block an offensive south towards Crimea, claiming on the contrary it was a “barbaric” act by Ukrainians.
Continue to cool the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant
The destruction of the dam also has consequences for the cooling of the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant, which is under Russian control. The level of the reservoir has been falling continuously since June 6 and reached the critical threshold of 12.7 m at 6 a.m. on June 8. In a statement, however, the IAEA emphasized that pumping operations “can continue even if the level is undershot ‘ and now sets the limit to ’11 meters or less’. The detention pond, smaller reserves and on-site wells “can provide cooling water for several months,” the IAEA said.
Location of the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant in relation to the Kakhovka dam and the hydroelectric power station. -IRSN
The French Institute for Radiation Protection and Nuclear Safety (IRSN), which monitors the evolution of the level of Lake Kachowka, cannot provide any explanations for the increase observed between February and May. “The concern for the plant today is linked to securing the dyke,” emphasizes Karine Herviou, Deputy Director General and responsible for the pole for nuclear safety at the institute. As the Dnieper level drops, “there is a risk that the watertightness of the basin will be lost.” [de rétention] she even emphasizes the obliteration of the dike that surrounds it, due to the pressure exerted by the water contained in the basin. The dike was not dimensioned to withstand when there was no water on the other side. »
As part of the post-Fukushima stress tests, the Ukrainian operator estimated that the dyke would be able to withstand a level of 10 m to the right of the facility, underlines a statement from IRSN, which “will be following the situation closely”. the following days. Should that dam ever disappear, pump trucks could make it possible to ensure the necessary replenishment in the basin fountains from the water remaining in the Dnieper, the IRSN adds.