FROM OUR CORRESPONDENT
NEW YORK – It will be crucial for the intelligence community to determine the exact role Iran played in the Oct. 7 attack, notes Marc Polymoropoulos, a former CIA official who specializes in counterterrorism in the Middle East has specialized. “The nuances are crucial: the difference between ‘leading and greenlighting the attack’ and ‘coordinating’ could mean the difference between whether we go to war with Iran or not,” he wrote on X.
On Sunday, the Wall Street Journal published an article claiming that Iran “helped Hamas plan the surprise attack on Israel over several weeks”: Iranian security officials “green lighted the attack on a meeting” in October Beirut 2; The “details of the plan were refined in several meetings” in the Lebanese capital. The sources, anonymous: senior Hamas and Hezbollah officials, confirmed by a European and a Syrian source.
The White House was cautious. Deputy National Security Adviser Jon Finer said on television: “It is clear that Iran is largely complicit because it has supported Hamas with money, training and weapons for decades.” What we don’t have is direct information that show that Iran was involved in ordering or planning the attack in recent days. We will take a close look at that.” Finer stressed that the US position was the same as Israel’s, which was later confirmed by Israeli army spokesman Dany Hagari.
Among those calling for a distinction between “coordination” on the one hand and “initiative/execution” on the other is one of Israel’s leading Iran experts, Raz Zimmit, who wrote about Iranian support for Hamas and the ongoing coordination between the guardians of the Iranian Revolution , Hezbollah, Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (the “Resistance Front”) on the one hand, and on the other hand, the initiative, organization and implementation of Operation Hamas. There is no doubt about the cooperation and growing Iranian involvement in the Palestinian arena in recent years, but I strongly doubt that Iran is significantly involved in Hamas’s recent action. It is a Palestinian story. Did they get help from Iran? Secure. Did Iran have an interest in this action? Yes. Did you need a permit from Iran? No. Was there any initial coordination between Hamas, Iran and Hezbollah? Possible. But in the end it is an action by Hamas based on its interests.”
According to many experts, Hamas would not have launched an attack of this magnitude without informing its allies. The article talks about meetings in recent weeks, but the Israelis believe they have been planned for many months. There is also skepticism about the participation of Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, as the Journal writes, “in at least two meetings”: since participation would have been closely monitored, including him would have been a risk. The article’s sources are important: some in Hamas may have an interest in involving Iran, which instead denies this, highlighting all of its support but defining Hamas as “independent” (words, however, based on a script respond: the strategy of war for authority). It’s a debate that may seem academic. This is not the case: Iran’s direct involvement would bring the secret war out of the shadows and increase the risk of a clash with Israel.