– Will they stop US attacks on the Houthis?
-NO.
—Will they continue?
-Yes.
This brief dialogue between journalists and President Joe Biden this week summed up in two lines the United States' position in the Middle East. The White House did not want conflict in the region under any circumstances, let alone in an election year, but it is increasingly finding itself in a crisis with points of tension multiplying as it grapples with the conflicting demands of its Arab and Israeli allies. Domestically, his positions on the war continue to draw Democratic criticism with less than 10 months left until the Nov. 5 presidential election.
Washington's position in the conflict – it supports Israel, asserts that the country has the right to destroy the radical Palestinian militia Hamas and defend its security, and supplies it with weapons, while demanding restraint and care for the lives of civilians – has put things in a difficult position in the Middle East as the number of Palestinian civilian casualties in Gaza increases and now stands at nearly 25,000.
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As criticism from other nations mounts and its credibility as a defender of human rights declines, particularly in the Global South, the United States urgently needs to prevent war from expanding, respond forcefully to its enemies without triggering escalation, and satisfy its partners with divergent interests. On the one hand, Arab countries are demanding that he use his influence to control Israel and bring about an end to the war; At the same time, Israel almost completely ignores their pressure and insists on continuing the offensive until Hamas is eliminated.
The headlights multiply. This Saturday, several rockets fired by pro-Iranian militias hit the Al Assad air base of the coalition he leads in Iraq, leaving several injured. In Israel, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu flatly refused to accept a Palestinian state, the pillar on which Washington bases its Middle East project, after weeks in which tensions between the two capitals became increasingly evident. for the day after the war. Israel, the Likud leader assured Thursday, must maintain security control over “the entire area west of the Jordan.” Iran-backed Houthi militias in Yemen continued their attacks on ships in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, despite five US airstrikes in a week against the group's targets in an attempt to neutralize their ability to attack.
The White House insists its strategy remains in place. In his four trips to the region since the conflict erupted in October, U.S. diplomatic chief Antony Blinken has drawn up a proposal that includes cooperation with Saudi Arabia in return for Israel's “yes” to a Palestinian state. Saudi Arabia in rebuilding Gaza and – the highlight of the offer to Netanyahu – in normalizing relations between Israel and Riyadh.
Demilitarized Palestine
In brief statements to the media shortly after his conversation with the Israeli prime minister, Biden reiterated that the two-state solution is possible during Netanyahu's term. And that this does not rule out “all” possible forms of a future Palestinian state. One way to make the proposal more acceptable to the Israeli leader, as Biden told reporters, would be a demilitarized Palestine. “There are several UN member countries that do not have their own army. “Several countries that have restrictions.” “I think,” he added, “there are ways this could work.”
“It is truly the only path that brings peace and security for all, and moreover, it is not something impossible, but something that can be achieved,” defended US national security adviser Jack Sullivan at the World Economic Forum in Davos this week . (Switzerland).
Given the White House's optimism, other experts are more skeptical about whether Israel can now accept something that it has put more and more obstacles in the way of over the last quarter century. “The administration seems to believe that it can gain Israel's approval through Saudi Arabia, among others, by essentially promoting normalization and getting the Israelis to change their tactics in Gaza. But that probably won't happen. “Right now Saudi Arabia’s demands and demands on Israel are too high,” Steve Cook of the Council on Foreign Relations think tank said via video conference. Riyadh is demanding a ceasefire as an essential condition for its participation in rebuilding or normalizing relations with Israel.
The complications for the US in the region were also evident this week 2,200 kilometers (1,400 miles) from Israel, in the waters of the Red Sea, where Iran-backed Houthi groups have been harassing merchant ships with missiles and drones, with no US response to five attacks in a week Targets carried out by members of this militia in Yemen have been arrested.
In this case, Washington opted for a combination of moderate use of force (the attacks were limited in scope) and its diplomatic tools to avoid an escalation in which Iran would be directly implicated. Earlier this week it added the Houthi movement to its list of specially designated terrorist groups, an initiative that imposes economic sanctions on the militia but does not go as far as those that would have made its entry on the list of foreign terrorist organizations. In addition, according to the White House, it has set a deadline of 30 days for the measure to take effect in order to minimize the impact on the entry of humanitarian aid into Yemen.
In itself, the classification as a “Specially Designated Terrorist Group” will not have a major impact, says Kirsten Fontenrose from the Atlantic Council think tank. “But it is important that the United States demonstrate that as a state it is using all its tools, not just military measures, to ensure that the international community clearly sees that the country is acting responsibly and in the interests of the world,” he said Expert explains.
The reaction of the US military was also relatively moderate. Preliminary US calculations suggest that its forces have destroyed a quarter of the Houthis' attack capacity. The Biden administration insists it does not want a confrontation with this Islamist militia or an expansion of the war in Yemen, but the group's attacks forced it to intervene to protect a sea route that carries between 12% and 15% of global trade become. “We remain committed to a resolution of the conflict in Yemen” and a permanent ceasefire between that group and Saudi Arabia, a senior official said this week on condition of anonymity.
“The US could not afford to heed its warnings about serious consequences of the activities [hutíes] were perceived as something hollow. “Other hostile powers outside Iran, such as Russia or China, could immediately seek to capitalize on any sign of American weakness,” says Michael Nagata of the Middle East Institute in Washington. “But these air strikes do not represent a strategic solution, even if they are necessary,” he emphasizes. As long as Iran continues to be able to support its network of affinity groups in the region, “vital points like the Red Sea will become increasingly vulnerable. And the United States cannot defend everything.”
Internal rejection
Biden's problems in the Middle East also extend to the domestic arena, where unease is spreading within Democratic ranks over Israel's bloody offensive in Gaza. This Friday, five senators from that party joined in support of a measure that already has 18 cosponsors in the upper house and would make US military aid to Israel conditional on that ally using those weapons in accordance with international law.
Another Democratic amendment aims to ensure that Congress must approve arms sales to Israel to prevent Biden from overriding the institution and ordering those deliveries, as he did twice in December. Earlier this week, 11 senators backed a proposal from Rep. Bernie Sanders that would force the White House to investigate possible Israeli human rights abuses.
Overall, “the most worrying source of turmoil” for the government is “the lack of progress in preventing broader regional escalation,” notes Brian Katulis of the Middle East Institute. “The events of the last week, including ongoing attacks in the Red Sea, Yemen, Lebanon, Syria and Iraq, as well as the conflict in Gaza, demonstrate the weakness of the position taken by the Biden team when this conflict began earlier .” . 100 days […]. “The turmoil of the last few weeks could point to new problems,” concludes this analyst.
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