Overall, the Falcons are unlikely to be a good team this year. However, I’m increasingly convinced that their offense could be a pretty interesting unit and could give us at least three fantasy starters each week.
Arthur Smith has an oddly awkward relationship with the media but I think he nailed his player effort in week 1 perfectly.
Kyle Pitts Broadly based only on 25.7 percent of its routes. I know everyone has hot opinions about how good a legitimate X-receiver Pitts could be, but he’s a tight end. We want him to run routes against linebackers and safeties. That’s where you get real mismatches.
I firmly believe Pitts was used so much last year out of necessity because the Falcons didn’t have legitimate outside receiver options. But I should be clear Again, I have my own agenda. Regardless, more actual tight end usage is a good thing for his fantasy prospect.
Pitts passed the block (20% of passing snaps) a little more than we want in Week 1, but remains a staple of the passing game. He inhaled 33% of the team’s air yards. He’ll have enough monster games soon.
DrakeLondon That’s why the Falcons haven’t had much to do with Pitts this year. The rookie stepped straight onto the NFL field and looked like he belonged after a very short period of practice last month following a preseason injury.
London was far ahead on 90.6% of the routes. He can win as a legitimate external X receiver. He managed 31% of team air yards and the results were also solid at 74 yards from five catches. London is one of my favorite buys right now, and I think he’s regularly found his way into top 20 receiver production throughout his rookie year. He’s just a really good player.
Drake London could turn out to be a trustworthy fantasy option. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)
A funnel goal tree between Pitts and London is exactly what we signed up for in Atlanta. Markus Mariota is obviously not a long-term answer, but can feed these guys underneath to amass catches.
Finally, it’s clear that 2021 was no fluke and Arthur Smith has clearly figured out how best to use it Cordarrelle Patterson. He was great in week 1.
The story goes on
He was one of the league’s all-time leaders in running back touches, making a first down on 45.5% of his rushes. The Falcons punished as a rushing team and the Saints have a history of a tough outing for running backs.
It would probably be best for another back on this roster to step up and stay healthy to take some of the grinder carries away from Patterson to keep him fresh. However, Patterson looks like a true NFL running back, and as long as the Falcons offense stays afloat, he will go down as one of this fantasy draft season’s most underrated players.
A glimmer of hope for the cowboys?
I wanted to share this because it’s a good reminder of when Cooper Rush took off after Dallas last year, the balloon didn’t all deflate. That being said, this ecosystem is dramatically worse than what the Cowboys introduced last year.
Rush was still aggressive when he took the field last Sunday and led all quarterbacks in average throwing depth. So maybe we can get a few air meters going CeeDee lamb Direction. To be clear, things are still pretty grim, but it’s just worth mentioning.
Tua Tagovailoa had the lowest average throwing depth (5.0) among the QBs when she was pressured in Week 1
Conversely, if kept clean, he placed top six in aDOT, according to Pro Football Focus.
It’s important to note as the Dolphins have been struggling with injuries on the offensive line. Left tackle Terron Armstead is questionable for Sunday and proper tackle Austin Jackson was put on IR for a short time on Friday morning.
Tyreek Hill was the biggest addition this team made in the offseason, but an improved offensive line was a big part of why Tua’s life would be easier in 2022. It’s not ideal to see injuries this early in the year. We’ve seen in recent seasons that Tua changes as a passer when things get particularly hot. He also finished last year in aDOT under pressure. He has playmakers who can work extremely well after catching, but that only limits the ceiling of this entire operation.
The Ravens had a perfect matchup against their old friend Joe Flaco into week 1 but from a pass defense perspective they’ve certainly gotten back on form. Fantasy managers interested in the Dolphins don’t want them teeing off against Tua behind a compromised offensive line.
Top 5 teams at situation-neutral game pace
1. lions
2. Cowboys
3. Eagle
4. Texans
5. Panthers
The Panthers catch my eye on this list. Ben McAdoo’s offensive is traditionally fast and paced. He brought that approach to an offense from Carolina that badly needs him.
While I didn’t love what I saw Baker Mayfield or the passing game in week 1, I’m willing to give a temporary pass. Mayfield looked like someone who hasn’t spent much time with this team. That makes sense – because it is.
From a structural perspective, the Panthers’ offense looks the way we want it to. I’m still confident in the optimistic forecasts about guys like Christian McCaffrey and DJ Moore.
The Eagles rank 11th for pass percentage in neutral situations
That looks a lot more like the Eagles’ play-calling from early last year, not the unit that ended the season in the basement in terms of passing attempts. The difference between last year’s early, pass-heavy Eagles team and what we saw in Week 1: This time it worked.
It helps to have a transformative talent, such as AJ Brown.
If this type of operation continues in Philadelphia, we need to fundamentally change our understanding of this offense and its players. Brown could finish as a top five receiver Jalen hurts would set up bonkers numbers and eventually there will be a trickle down effect for the other pass catchers on the list.
Top-5 RBs in yards from contact per rush
1 – Leonard Fournette 3.24
2-Javonte Williams 3.14
3 – D’Andre Swift 3.07
4 – Clyde Edwards-Helaire 2.86
5 – Cordarrelle Patterson 2.82
Leonard Fournette and the Bucs’ running game looked great despite a string of offensive-line injuries. The veteran seemed determined and ran extremely well on Sunday. There is a strange belief in some fantasy circles that Fournette isn’t a good back and only benefits from his circumstances. That’s enough; Fournette is a good starting NFL back. He was an underwhelming player and deserves to be higher in the rankings for the remainder of the season (make sure to keep an eye on his status for Sunday as he’s reportedly struggling with a hamstring injury).
The Broncos have done a lot of work to ensure that Javonte Williams was in space in week 1 as both a rusher and a receiver. I know they just made a huge deal for Russell Wilson in the offseason and everyone was (overly) excited about their receiver corps, but the team that took the field in Week 1 looked like a unit where their best player was the running back. Williams will likely get more production than Rusher.
Top 5 players in yards by contact per rush
1 – Saquon Barkley 6.83
2 – D’Andre Swift 6.53
3 – Miles Sanders 6
4 – Jalen hurts 4.76
5 – Rashaad Penny 4.67
I have a few thoughts here.
Saquon Barkley is back-back. He was a bit more of a boom/bust runner than most care to admit, dating back to his college days. However, the Week 1 version of Barkley ran decisively, rolling over defenders, consistently raking in extra yards. If we get this 17-game version of Barkley, he’ll easily join Tier 1 fantasy running backs.
I was just raving about the Eagles’ passing game early on, but they’re also dynamic on the ground. Miles Sanders will never be a consistent fantasy option, but he has some advantages as a big-play runner tied to good offense and a healthy rushing ecosystem.
You will notice D’Andre Swift is up there on those two top 5 lists. love to see Fantasy managers were irritated by this Jamal Williams They skimmed the goal-line work in Week 1. You just have to learn to live with it and not let it bother you. Williams isn’t going away. More importantly, the Lions’ talented offensive line is almost fully functional (although they had a few injuries this week) when they often weren’t last year, and Swift is looking fantastic as a runner.
That wasn’t always the case last year either. The lofty goal totals from early last year are unlikely to return for Swift this season Amon-Ra St. Brown an outstanding player. But if he can gain ground as a rusher, it won’t matter much.
Running top 5 RBs in routes
1 – Darrell Henderson 39
2 – Joe Mixon38
3 – Jonathan Taylor 34
4 – Aaron Jones 28
5 – Javonte Williams 28
Some of these players were promoted through game script and overtime in week 1, but we got some clarity on the role distribution.
Darrell Henderson was previously locked into temporary work for the Rams Cam Akers and now with rookie Kyren Williams – a connoisseur of passport protection in college – On IR he should keep this gig easy and work well ahead of Akers while he’s healthy. Until that rotation changes, Henderson is a top 15 fantasy back.
Joe Mixon is also interesting here. Some analysts had dropped him as a pass catcher for his historical lack of involvement. Still, he ran a route on 58% of the Joe Burrows Dropbacks and made up 17% of team goals. He’ll be pushing for a top-five running back finish if that reception usage is the new norm.
For the love of God, let’s hope we see more actual reception usage Aaron Jones in Week 2. He shared leadership of the team in routes ridden with some of the receivers, but was not a standout in the destinations pecking order. He’s going to look like a huge reach in Round 2 – on several of my teams, by the way – if that doesn’t change.