Israeli soldiers guard the border between Israel and Lebanon, where the terrorist group Hezbollah is carrying out attacks Photo: EFE/EPA/ATEF SAFADI
Since the beginning of Israel’s declared war against Hamas, Iran has taken a firm stance against Israeli defensive measures, which the regime describes as “aggression by the Jewish state against the Palestinians.”
The first demonstration took place three days after the terrorist group’s surprise attack, in which the Persian country’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei said he was proud of the invasion of “Palestinian youth.” However, he denied any involvement in the hostilities, even though it is widely known that Iran is the main financier of the militias active in the Gaza Strip.
This week, Iranian diplomacy also took a stand on the conflict, calling on Islamic countries to impose a boycott against Israel, expel diplomats and impose an embargo on the sale of oil to the country. The announcement was made by Foreign Minister Hossein AmirAbdollahian.
In his speech, the diplomat warned that “time is running out for a political solution between the sides” and threatened to take “preventive measures” with the entry of the socalled “Axis of Resistance” into the fight if “war crimes were committed against the…” Palestinians will not be stopped.”
The statements come at a time when the conflict is potentially escalating, given the impending land invasion of the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) into the Gaza Strip and attacks launched by Hezbollah on Israel’s northern border with Lebanon.
This Friday (20), the Israeli government began the evacuation of residents of Kiryat Shmona, a town near the border with Lebanese territory.
What is the axis of resistance?
The Axis of Resistance is an unofficial influence alliance led by Iran that includes groups in the Middle East that are openly opposed to the United States and Israel.
The vast majority of allies are Shiite militias such as the Lebanese group Hezbollah, the Houthis in Yemen, Islamic Jihad in the Gaza Strip and other groups in Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan. Although Hamas is also listed on the axis, it emerged from a Sunni movement.
In an interview with the British broadcaster BBC, the director of the Middle East Institute, Lina Khatib, explained that this influence was built on a number of conflicts in the region, such as the civil wars in Syria and Yemen, as well as disputes over the Islamic State. in Iraq.
According to her, these militias are funded by Iran to “promote the regime’s political goals” in the countries where they are based and at the regional level.
The creator of this influence network was Qasem Soleimani, former commander of the Quds Force, an important branch of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard.
This elite unit is responsible for the military actions of the Iranian armed forces outside the country. Through Quds, the Tehran government partners with groups and militias in other Islamic countries, funds military training and provides ammunition and weapons for terrorist attacks aimed at toppling governments and taking over territory unrecognized by the rebels.
This happened during the Syrian civil war in 2011, when Iran sent soldiers into the country to support President Bashar alAssad against the armed insurgency in the territory. At the time, thousands of Shiite militants were armed to defend the allied government in Tehran.
Since taking over AlQuds in 1998, Soleimani’s main goals have been to expand Iran’s influence in the Middle East and establish Iranian leadership in the region. To do this, he recruited rebel groups with radical sentiments that were close to the Shiite regime and remained loyal to its authority.
In this context, it is believed that terrorist groups such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in the Gaza Strip have been financed.
In this context, it is believed that terrorist groups such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in the Gaza Strip have been financed.
Another example occurred in Iraq, where the Iranian regime’s action was aimed at defeating the Islamic State. The first Axis of Resistance project designed by Soleimani armed and prepared the Popular Mobilization Forces (FMP) to defeat ISIS, which has lost much of its strength in recent years but continues to carry out sporadic attacks, primarily in Europe and Africa.
The terrorist group Boko Haram is one of the branches of the Islamic State in Nigeria, a country wracked by violence, particularly against Christians, who are kidnapped and killed following raids on local communities.
In 2019, the American government designated Iran’s Revolutionary Guard and the Quds Force as foreign terrorist organizations.
Soleimani was killed by the US in 2020 after he was hit in an airstrike while leaving the airport in Baghdad, the capital of Iraq. The episode occurred during Donald Trump’s administration.
Despite the death of its founder, the Axis of Resistance continues to operate in the Middle East and poses an active threat in the war between Israel and Hamas.
One of the proofs of this was the visit of US President Joe Biden to Israel this Wednesday (18).
The country sent two groups of aircraft carriers to the eastern Mediterranean, stationed near Iran, with the aim of “sending a message” to the country if it decides to intervene directly in the conflict or an ally, such as its neighbor , to send the Israeli territory. , Hezbollah.
The Lebanese militia Hezbollah
Hezbollah is a Shiite militia formed in the 1980s during the Lebanese Civil War, a conflict marked by territorial disputes between Christians and Muslims in the country.
In Arabic, the group’s name means “Party of God.” Like Hamas, its goals include the destruction of the Jewish state.
In Lebanon it operates on two fronts: as a Shiite political party with veto power in the executive branch and as an Iranianfunded paramilitary group that remains popular with the Shiite portion of the Lebanese population. The great leader of Hezbollah is Hassan Nasrallah.
Officially, the militia was formed in 1985 after the publication of an “open letter” in which it declared that the two world powers of the time, the USA and the Soviet Union (USSR), were its main enemies. The document published by the group also portrays the Jewish state as a target for destruction.
A new manifesto was written in 2009 after the organization won ten seats in the Lebanese parliament. Unlike the old document, Hezbollah refrained from defending the creation of an Islamic republic, but maintained a “hard line” against Israel and the United States.
The group is classified as a terrorist organization by the United States, Israel, the European Union and some Arab League countries.
In an interview with People’s GazetteBrazilian Gabriel Schorr, who was a soldier in the Israel Defense Forces for 23 years and served three times in the Gaza Strip, said that Hezbollah is the only terrorist group classified as an army by Israel.
“The militia is considered ‘Iran’s favorite daughter’. It is a better prepared group and has a larger contingent than Hamas.” It is the only organization classified as a terrorist army by Israel Defense Forces. They have armored vehicles, drones widely used by the Russians in the war against Ukraine, and better preparation and funding than Hamas in Gaza,” he explained.
The former IDF soldier explains that most Islamic terrorist groups were founded by the Iranian regime. “We have several Iraniansponsored groups in the Middle East. Hezbollah, like the main one, is the “Iranian front on the border with Israel”. We know that if Iranian soldiers and missiles were fired from Tehran, they would not reach Israel, so investments were made in Lebanon to form the allied militia as if neighboring Iran were next to the State of Israel.”
Given the Lebanese militia’s attacks on Israeli territory just days after the Hamas attack, and the Israeli army’s impending entry into Gaza, there is a possibility that Hezbollah could intervene directly in the conflict.
“Given the possible escalation of the conflict, there is a good chance that Hezbollah will intervene as soon as Israel enters the Gaza Strip by land, but not immediately.” The terrorists should wait a few days, about ten, and think about an attack strategy, since Israeli soldiers will be more tired and military losses will be expected.”
The expert emphasizes that the group must also wait for certain results before the procedure. “If they believe that this means the end, a defeat of Hamas, they will fire rockets into Israel and unleash terror in the country,” he said.
Schorr does not believe in direct US intervention in the war. However, sending aircraft carriers into the Red Sea off Iran is a strategy of the American state to “communicate” to the Iranian regime the presence of allies on the Israeli side.
“Biden sent two aircraft carriers to the region. This shows that there is an American military presence alongside Israel with the hope of putting pressure on Iran and preventing a Hezbollah attack. I’m not sure if it works, in the Arab world you can’t speak English,” he said.
How can a war escalate?
For the former Brazilian fighter, there are three main predictions for an escalation of the war. In the first hypothesis, Israel invades Gaza with the aim of destroying Hamas and its influence in the region without Hezbollah creating another war front. “When I fought in Gaza, the goal was never to end Hamas, but rather to curb terrorist attacks in the region. There has never been a mission with this goal before because there was hope that the group controlling Gaza would open up and create space for future dialogue.”
According to him, this operation would take months and require the preparation of both military personnel and civilians for evacuation to shelters. “This hypothesis has a double interest: to avoid contact with innocent people as much as possible and to have the freedom to reach Hamas’ strategic locations.”
In a second forecast, Israel would defend itself against the Lebanese militias on the northern border. Schorr describes Hezbollah as “the next war” the country will face.
“We are aware of Hezbollah’s training centers and arsenal. In this possibility, the Israeli army could gain a military advantage; I cannot say whether American fighters would officially take part in the fight. I think the U.S. would provide munitions, intelligence, equipment and interception, but nothing directly.”
The third option Schorr suggests is the global escalation of the conflict, which would lead to a third world war in which all powers intervene in the dispute.
“In this hypothesis, Iran would leverage its informal alliances with terrorist militias in Syria, Yemen and other parts of the Middle East to carry out attacks on Israeli and American embassies, which we are already seeing, and to kill Jews.” I hope so it doesn’t happen, some would call this new escalation a third world war. These actions would mobilize Western leaders here. “Everyone knows that the line between these three options is very thin,” said the expert.
The former soldier emphasizes that he does not see any official uprising by Islamic countries against Israel. “I believe that the countries would not officially join the conflict, but the action would take place through these independent allied formations led by Iran.”
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