If Sweden regularly sends troops for peacekeeping operations, the country, a NATO candidate since May 2022, has not been involved in an armed conflict since the Napoleonic Wars. The reality of war is also alien to most Swedes. “There could be a war in Sweden,” Civil Protection Minister Carl-Oskar Bohlin said at a defense conference on Sunday, warning against complacency.
The Commander-in-Chief of the Swedish Armed Forces, Micael Biden, followed suit a few days later and showed burned and bombed houses in Ukraine. “Do you think it could be Sweden?” he asked during the same event, explaining that it was not a simple rhetorical question.
“Russia’s war against Ukraine is a stage, not a final destination, aimed at establishing a sphere of influence and destroying the rules-based world order,” he said. The army chief then said that Swedes “must prepare mentally for war.” In addition to its NATO candidacy, Sweden signed an agreement in early December giving the United States access to 17 military bases on its soil.
Worried children
Following these high-profile statements, children's rights NGO Bris said it had seen a significant increase in calls to its emergency number from children worried about the prospect of war. “For many children, this information has increased the extent of their fears,” said Magnus Jagerskog, general secretary of the association, in a press release.
Chain stores also reported an increase in purchases of items such as emergency radios, canisters and camping stoves. These statements sparked heated debate about their alarming nature.
“The situation is serious, but it is also important to make it clear that we are not facing war,” said Magdalena Andersson, leader of the Social Democrats and a former prime minister. Commentator Goran Greider, tagged left, wrote that he believed the army's comments were “a secret desire to test the Swedish armed forces.” But in his editorial for the newspaper Dagens Nyheter (DN), he also admitted that the real message was more likely: “Give us more money.”
In an editorial, the same daily judged that many of the responses to this call for preparation were “absurd” and that the claim that war was impossible was a “misinterpretation.”
Russia mocked the Swedish statements and the Russian embassy in Sweden wrote on X: “Perhaps the Swedish leaders should stop driving their people into paranoia?”.
“Dream of War”
Alexey Pushkov, a member of the upper house of the Russian parliament, said on Telegram that we “sometimes have the impression that some Swedish soldiers and journalists are almost dreaming of war.”
The prospect of a Russian attack on Sweden is baseless, says Mark Galeotti of the Royal United Services Institute think tank. “I understand that the military has to consider worst-case scenarios and Russia has shown that it is acting more aggressively than expected,” he told AFP. “But I must admit that I am skeptical about the likelihood of such a scenario.”
In his opinion, several factors make the hypothesis of a Russian attack unlikely, in particular “the fact that the Russian army, or at least the ground forces in particular, have been weakened by the war in Ukraine.” “The ultimate question is why would Putin do this? » asks Mr Galeotti.
Ukraine occupies a special place in Vladimir Putin's vision of Russia, who, on the other hand, has shown no desire to attack the Baltic countries, which is often seen as a scenario in which Sweden could become involved, he says. It is also difficult to imagine that Russia would wage a major conflict with NATO countries, the expert adds.