But where is Li Shangfu? The Chinese Defense Minister has not given any sign of life for more than two weeks, writes the British daily Financial Times in an article published on Friday, September 15th.
The general’s last public appearance comes at the third China-Africa Peace and Security Forum held in Beijing on August 29. And he hasn’t left China since a trip to Moscow and Minsk, Belarus, in mid-August.
The Chinese army in Xi Jinping’s sights
Beijing remains silent about this disappearance. The only official note: Vietnamese authorities confirmed that his ministry canceled a trip by Li Shangfu to Hanoi last week for “health reasons.”
But according to Washington, the truth lies elsewhere. The minister would be the target of a corruption investigation that would have pushed authorities to discreetly remove him from his post just six months after his personal appointment by Xi Jinping, several American officials assured the Financial Times on condition of anonymity.
In fact, Beijing appears to have carried out a purge of the ranks of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) over the summer. “We have the impression that a comprehensive investigation into corruption in the army is underway,” notes Carlotta Rinaudo, China specialist at the International Team for the Study of Security (ITSS) in Verona.
In July, Xi Jinping himself announced the dismissal of two officials from the PLA Missile Force, a branch of the army responsible for developing highly strategic ballistic missiles.
At the beginning of September, the president of the army military court was dismissed. The government has not given any official reason for this “surprise restructuring.”
However, corruption is always the number one suspect in the Chinese army. “Since China’s economic opening to the world in the 1980s, the army has had a reputation for endemic corruption with powerful generals who feel untouchable and monetize their influence,” emphasizes Marc Lanteigne, sinologist at the Arctic University of Norway.
When Xi Jinping came to power in 2012, he made fighting corruption in the army ranks a top priority. “It’s an obsession for him. We must not forget that he began his career as Mishu (秘书) – a Chinese term for personal secretaries – of an army general, which allowed him to recognize the reality of corruption very early,” points out Carlotta Rinaudo of the ITSS.
“Nobody is immune”
In this regard, the recent “network raids” – including the disappearance of the minister – may illustrate the latest manifestation of this clean operation by the Chinese president.
The fact that Xi Jinping did not hesitate to part ways with a minister he self-appointed in March 2023 and who is “among the president’s loyalists,” as Marc Lanteigne points out, would demonstrate the president’s resolve. “Nobody is safe,” summarizes Carlotta Rinaudo.
According to the expert, Li Shangfu’s profile would also be a good fit for a large-scale corruption case in the army. “In 2017 he worked in the department for the development of military equipment, which has a reputation for being very corrupt because a lot of money is made there,” emphasizes Carlotta Rinaudo.
However, the thesis of a major anti-corruption offensive does not correspond well with the traditional approach in this area. The Chinese president has never been discreet in his fight against corruption in the army. “It’s one of his pride pieces and he likes to show it off,” notes Marc Lanteigne.
It is possible that Xi Jinping has chosen to remain silent because he does not want to shine too much media spotlight on an affair involving one man – his defense minister – reportedly one of his close friends. “This is not the best effect in terms of his ability to choose his employees correctly,” recognizes sinologist Marc Lanteigne.
But Li Shangfu’s fate is also reminiscent of another recent episode at the top of the state. In July, former Foreign Minister Qin Gang also disappeared for more than a month. He was finally officially released at the end of July – without any official explanation for this decision. Since then, the ex-minister has still not resurfaced.
“We have the impression that this is the beginning of a political maneuver,” notes Marc Lanteigne. After the wave of disappearances of billionaires and business leaders in recent years, it would be the turn of high-ranking politicians.
In this hypothesis, these quiet layoffs “reflect bitter battles between ministries within the government,” believes Marc Lanteigne. A behind-the-scenes cacophony that ill-fits with the image of near-absolute control that Xi Jinping would exercise over his government.
A feverish force?
But the political situation in China has actually been tense “since the end of the controversial ‘zero Covid’ health policy, which led to large demonstrations against the government,” recalls Marc Lanteigne. An episode that may have left its mark, and the layoffs are “a way for Xi Jinping to reassert his control,” analyzes the sinologist from the University of the Arctic. “He proves that he is still strong by even getting rid of a loved one,” adds Carlotta Rinaudo from ITSS.
At the international level, these mass disappearances give the impression of excitement rather than violence, say experts interviewed by France 24. The American ambassador to Japan, Rahm Emanuel, even had fun with the situation and compared it to the novel “The Ten Little Negroes.” by Agatha Christie [nouvellement baptisé “Ils étaient dix”] where the characters disappear one by one.
“It is still the two most important ministers who are supposed to represent China on the international stage – foreign and defense ministers – who have disappeared!” exclaims Marc Lanteigne. From a diplomatic perspective, “we no longer really know which words to trust when ministers can disappear overnight,” adds Carlotta Rinaudo.
However, the defense minister’s likely sideline could ultimately prove beneficial for Beijing. In fact, Li Shangfu has been on the list of figures subject to American sanctions since 2018 for selling military equipment to Russian companies also sanctioned by Washington. In other words: “In the current context of Sino-American tensions, he was not the best interlocutor to calm relations with Washington,” concludes Carlotta Rinaudo.
He was also a “hawk who made very aggressive statements about Chinese claims in the China Sea and relations with the West,” adds Marc Lanteigne. For this expert, the appointment of Li Shangfu’s successor will be a very good indicator of Xi Jinping’s state of mind. If the post goes to a moderate, it would be a sign that Beijing wants to improve its relations with Washington.