The war in Ukraine is putting a massive strain on the global food supply.
Ukraine’s grain exports last month were a quarter higher than in February. Also as a direct result of the Russian invasion, fertilizer costs have risen by 30% since early 2022, with rising prices for commodities such as ammonia, nitrogen and nitrates.
“This will be another big test of the food supply system,” said Diane Charlton, assistant professor of agricultural economics at Montana State University. “We need to monitor very closely what is happening in other parts of the world and consider ways to reduce the risk of food shortages and conflict.”
Meanwhile, food prices in the US are rising at historic rates, while prices for commodities like wheat and corn are at their highest levels in a decade. Additionally, the U.S. Department of Agriculture forecasts that home food prices will increase by up to 4% by the end of 2022.
“It’s particularly serious because we’ve just recovered from a two-and-a-half-year pandemic that had a severe impact on the prices of goods and services, as well as commodity prices,” said Johanna Mendelson-Forman, an associate professor at American University in the US School of International Service.
However, despite the prospect of further rising prices, experts do not expect food shortages in the United States.
“It’s important to realize that the US doesn’t import very much from Ukraine,” said Joseph Faithr, senior research fellow at the International Food Policy Research Institute.
“We may see some shelves that are empty for different types of food, like we’ve had for some time as we recover from the pandemic,” said Scott Irwin, chair of agricultural marketing at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign. “But I can say with reasonable confidence that the average consumer in the United States will not experience a bread shortage because of what is happening in Ukraine.”
Watch the video to learn more about how the war in Ukraine is affecting global food availability.